enDaily Analysis 21/11/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
Dollar rises on Trump, Fed expectations
The dollar index held above 106.5 on Thursday after rebounding in the previous session, supported by expectations that Trump’s policies could fuel inflation, which could limit future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Gold continues to rise for the fourth consecutive year
Ukraine fired long-range weapons supplied by Western countries for the second time on Wednesday, a day after President Putin approved an updated nuclear doctrine that expands the terms of use of nuclear weapons.
Meanwhile, the United States vetoed a UN resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, raising renewed concerns about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
On the monetary policy front, markets continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s interest rate expectations, closely monitoring the bank’s statements for fresh trading signals.
A slight majority of the market still expects a 25 basis point rate cut in December, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold.
Gold rises on geopolitical uncertainty
Gold rose in early Asian trading. The precious metal remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Geopolitical tensions can often spur demand for gold, which is considered a safe-haven asset.
Asian stocks fell on Thursday after artificial intelligence leader Nvidia reported its financial results.
Slower revenue growth expectations disappointed investors, while the dollar strengthened and bitcoin hit a record high, supported by hopes for US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies.
Oil prices rise on geopolitical tensions; higher-than-expected US inventories cap gains, Brent trades at $73.00, WTI at $69.00
Moscow has said that using Western weapons to strike Russian territory far from the border would constitute a major escalation of the conflict. Kyiv says it needs the ability to defend itself by hitting Russian rear bases used to support Moscow’s invasion, which entered its 1,000th day this week.
“For oil, the risk is that Ukraine will target Russian energy infrastructure, while the other risk is uncertainty about how Russia will respond to these attacks,” analysts at ING Bank said in a note.
Analysts at JPMorgan said oil consumption recovered last week thanks to improved travel demand in the United States and India, while the latter also showed a significant increase in industrial demand.
Global oil demand is expected to reach 103.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first 19 days of November, up 1.7 million bpd year-on-year, analysts said in a note.
But countering the gains, U.S. crude inventories rose by 545,000 barrels to 430.3 million barrels in the week to Nov. 15, exceeding analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 138,000-barrel increase.
Gasoline stocks rose more than expected last week, while distillate inventories fell more than expected, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.
Bitcoin price continues to gain and reaches new record highs of $97,000. Bitcoin maintains its gains and may soon target more gains at the $100,000 level soon.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2660.49
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2663.69, targeting 2670.12 and then 2677.25
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2652.31 with a target price of 2645.86 and 2638.03
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $69.21 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below $68.75 levels, targeting $68.23 and then $67.64
Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $69.43 level, targeting $69.90 and then $70.46
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.05401
First scenario: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.05386, targeting 1.05226 and then 1.05013.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.05613, targeting 1.05798 and then 1.06022.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26449
Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.26338 level, targeting the price of 1.26097 and then 1.25875
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.26638, targeting 1.26879 and then 1.27165.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20691
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20757, targeting 20861 then 20979
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 20600 with a target price of 20476 then 20369
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From USA Unemployment Claims Rate 16:30
-From USA Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November) 16:30
-From USA Existing Home Sales (October) 18:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held above 106.5 on Thursday after rebounding in the previous session, supported by expectations that Trump’s policies could fuel inflation, which could limit future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Investors are now focusing on potential candidates for Trump’s cabinet portfolios to assess whether the incoming administration will deliver on its campaign promises.
On the monetary policy front, mixed signals emerged from Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook, who offered divergent views on inflation and the potential for further easing in separate statements on Wednesday.
Investors are looking forward to key data releases, including initial jobless claims and existing home sales, as well as more comments from the central bank.
The dollar also benefited from renewed safe-haven demand, fueled by rising tensions between Russia and the West. As a result, the dollar strengthened across the board, with the euro, New Zealand dollar and yen seeing the biggest declines.
Gold extended recent gains to top $2,650 an ounce on Thursday, rising for a fourth straight session, as investors sought safety in the metal amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty amid rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday as geopolitical concerns over escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine weighed on prices, with a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories weighing on prices.
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