Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index held steady around 103.4 on Monday after rising for three straight weeks, supported by expectations of a more modest easing cycle from the Federal Reserve and rising prospects for a Trump presidency again.

Gold hits new record high

Investors are closely watching developments in the Middle East as tensions flare following Hezbollah’s announcement on Friday that it was entering a more intense phase in its conflict with Israel, while reports over the weekend indicated that Israeli strikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs and other regional targets.

The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US presidential election also increases the appeal of safe-haven assets.

Moreover, expectations of more flexible monetary policies by major central banks also support gold prices.

The People’s Bank of China cut key interest rates as part of stimulus measures, and the European Central Bank cut rates last week for the third time this year.

However, recent strong US economic data has fuelled expectations of a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.

-The Commonwealth Bank of Australia says gold futures are likely to rise to $3,000 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025 –

Gold futures are likely to rise to $3,000 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025 after rising to record highs above $2,700 an ounce.

The recent rise in gold prices likely stems from safe-haven demand due to rising tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over the US presidential election.

The prospect of monetary policy easing in most advanced economies around the world also spurred gold futures higher.

The potential weakness of the US dollar due to further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has emerged as a key positive driver to watch for gold prices.

Gold rose in early Asian trading as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosted the precious metal’s safe-haven appeal. There is growing uncertainty following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, as

Sinwar’s death adds further uncertainty to the negotiations and conflict in the Middle East, as Sinwar was a vital decision-maker. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office said a drone from Lebanon flew toward his private residence near Tel Aviv before exploding early Saturday.

Oil prices stabilize after a 7% weekly decline, with Brent crude trading at $73.00 and WTI at $69.00.

Brent crude fell more than 7% last week, while West Texas Intermediate crude lost about 8%.

-Contracts posted their biggest weekly decline since Sept. 2 due to slowing economic growth in China and lower risk premiums in the Middle East. U.S. President Joe Biden said on Friday there was an opportunity to “deal with Israel and Iran in a way that ends the conflict for a period of time.”

But the conflict in the Middle East intensified over the weekend when Israel said on Sunday it was preparing to attack sites in the Lebanese capital Beirut linked to Hezbollah’s financial operations.

China cut its benchmark lending interest rate on Monday morning as expected, as part of a broader package of stimulus measures to revive the economy.

China’s economy grew at its slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, data showed on Friday, raising growing concerns about oil demand.

On the supply side, U.S. energy companies last week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the fourth time in five weeks, according to a report from energy services firm Baker Hughes on Friday. The rig count fell by one to 585.

Bitcoin price continued its gains above the $68,000 resistance area. Bitcoin is now trying to consolidate its gains and is targeting further gains above the $69,500 resistance level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2731.40

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2734.03, targeting 2740.46 and 2747.59

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2722.65, targeting 2716.20 and then 2708.37

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $69.09 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $69.44 level, targeting $69.91 and then $70.47.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $68.76 levels, targeting $68.24 and then $67.65.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08540

Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.08517, targeting 1.08302 and then 1.08089.

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.08690, targeting 1.08874 and then 1.09099.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.30275

Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the 1.30085 level, targeting the price of 1.29845 and then 1.29623

Alternative scenario: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold at a buy close of 1.30391 with a target price of 1.30626 then 1.30913

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20406

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20493, targeting 20597 then 20715

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 20337 with target price of 20212 then 20105

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

There is no important economic data today.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady around 103.4 on Monday after rising for three straight weeks, supported by expectations of a more modest easing cycle from the Federal Reserve and rising prospects for a Trump presidency again.

Strong retail sales figures released last week, along with strong jobs and inflation reports earlier this month, pointed to the resilience of consumer spending and suggested the U.S. economy is still far from recession.

Markets now see a 91% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in November, with a possible skip in December.

On the political front, the chances of former President Donald Trump regaining the White House in November have increased, which has supported the dollar, as his tariff and tax policies are considered inflationary, which will likely keep US interest rates high.

Investors are now looking ahead to the US PMI and other economic data this week, as well as corporate earnings reports to gauge the strength of the economy.

Gold rose to around $2,730 an ounce on Monday, hitting new record highs, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets.

Oil prices steadied in early trading on Monday, after falling more than 7% last week on concerns about demand in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, and easing worries about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.