Daily Market Analysis

 

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index rose toward 104.7 on Tuesday, extending the previous session’s gains as Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic said it will take some time before the central bank is confident that inflation will return to 2%, reiterating that it will be necessary to cut the interest rate again. one only. this year.

-Gold slides from record levels with the stability of the dollar

Gold hit a record high of $2,450.49 on Monday

Analysts say strong fundamentals and industrial demand make silver attractive

-Federal Reserve minutes scheduled for release on Wednesday

Low interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty make bullion a suitable investment.

“Market expectations for lowering interest rates starting this year rose slightly with the slowdown in inflation figures that came last week. On the other hand, geopolitical risks played a major role in pushing gold prices to a new record level.”

Buying in China was exceptional in the first quarter, as demand for bullion and coins was very strong, hitting its highest level since 2017. These factors offset investment outflows in ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and push prices higher. “.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed when his helicopter crashed amid bad weather in the mountains near the Azerbaijani border on Sunday.

Minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting scheduled for Wednesday will be awaited along with comments from a slew of Fed spokespeople this week.

-The Chinese yuan records its weakest level in 3 weeks after stabilizing at the lowest level in 3 months

-Markets are currently factoring in about 41 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, with a quarter-point cut fully factored in for November. (Fedwatch)

Traders rushed to rebuild easing bets after data earlier this month showed consumer price pressures easing in April, after a series of bullish surprises over three months at the start of the year.

However, Fed officials are reluctant to declare that inflation is under control, with Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson saying on Monday that it is too early to know whether the slowdown is “prolonged,” and Vice Chairman Michael Barr saying that policy… Restrictive needs more time. .

Asian stocks fell while the dollar maintained its strength on Tuesday as investors awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting to gauge the timing and extent of potential interest rate cuts this year.

-Oil declines as traders evaluate the Middle East region, with Brent crude trading at $83.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $79.00.

-Markets do not appear too concerned about oil supplies from the region, as there are no immediate signs of interruption in oil flows.

Investors are also cautiously awaiting the next OPEC meeting on June 1 regarding the possibility of extending production cuts.

Meanwhile, recent events such as Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries and the Houthi missile attack on a China-bound oil tanker in the Red Sea continue to pose risks to global supplies.

-The price of Bitcoin increased by more than 8% and rose to more than $70,000. BTC is now consolidating gains and showing signs of further gains in the near term.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2415.20

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2420.49, with a target price of 2426.92 and 2434.05.

Alternative scenario: sell gold at a break and hold below 2409.11, with a target price of 2402.66 and then 2396.43.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $78.69 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $79.09, targeting a price of $79.56, then 80.12. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $78.41, targeting a price of $77.89, then 77.31.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08631

The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.08695, targeting the price of 1.08880, then 1.09104.

Alternative scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break and hold firm by closing the candle below 1.08468, targeting the price of 1.08308 then 1.08095.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27154

The first scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break and stability above the level of 1.27185, targeting the price of 1.27471, then 1.27692.

Alternative scenario: sell the pound/dollar at a break and hold firm by closing below 1.26849, targeting the price of 1.26651 then 1.26427.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18750

The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold steady with a close above 18788, targeting the price of 18858 then 18938.

Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold steady by closing below 18686, price 18629, then 18578.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From Canada CPI (YoY) (Apr) 15:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

he dollar index rose toward 104.7 on Tuesday, extending the previous session’s gains as Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic said it will take some time before the central bank is confident that inflation will return to 2%, reiterating that it will be necessary to cut the interest rate at once. Just. this year.

“Our new steady state is likely to be higher than what people have known over the past decade, perhaps going back to where we were in the 1990s and 2000s,” he added. However, traders kept their bets on the timing and extent of Fed rate cuts this year, as they saw rate cuts in September and November.

Investors are now looking to further comments from the central bank and the latest FOMC meeting minutes this week to further guide expectations.

The dollar strengthened across the board, with buying activity most evident against the Australian and New Zealand dollars and the Japanese yen.

Gold prices fell today, Tuesday, with the US dollar rising, pulling the metal back from a record peak reached in the previous session, as a combination of bullish factors, including increasing bets on a cut in US interest rates and geopolitical risks, pushed demand for a safe haven.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled near $79 a barrel on Tuesday after settling lower in the previous session, as investors continued to weigh developments in the Middle East following the death of Iran’s president in a helicopter crash and emerging health concerns for the king of Saudi Arabia.