enDaily Analysis 21/01/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
Dollar rises on tariff concerns
The dollar index rose to around 108.5 on Tuesday, recovering some of the losses from the previous session after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was considering imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Feb. 1, citing concerns about illegal immigration at the U.S. border.
Gold hits highest level since early November
Analysts say gold remains an attractive hedge.
-Trump will take longer to impose tariffs
-The dollar falls sharply, hovering near its lowest levels since January 7
After weeks of global speculation about what tariffs Trump would impose on his first day in office, news that Trump would take more time on tariffs brought relief to global stock markets but pressured the US dollar.
“There is a sense of relief in risk sentiment to know that tariffs were not an immediate focus. The decline in bets on imminent trade tensions is most evident in the US dollar,” said IG market strategist Yip Jun Rong.
“The mixed dynamics are keeping gold prices resilient for now, and we can expect gold to remain an attractive hedge. The $2,720 level will be an immediate resistance to watch.”
Trump said he was considering imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting February 1.
While gold is used as a safe investment in times of economic uncertainty, the degree to which the incoming administration implements Trump’s policy pledges will also have a significant impact on the future direction of US interest rates.
Trump’s policies are inflationary, which could push the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high for longer, which would negatively impact gold because it doesn’t yield any interest.
Global markets greeted Donald Trump’s presidency with a great deal of trepidation on Tuesday in moves that were highly sensitive to headlines about the new president’s plans for trade relations and tariffs in particular.
Oil prices rise as traders assess Trump’s first day in office, with Brent crude trading at $79.00 and WTI at $76.00.
Among these decisions is a plan to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada starting February 1, which has dampened investors’ expectations of a delay.
But Trump declined to disclose specific tariffs on China, the world’s largest oil importer, keeping markets on edge.
Traders are also awaiting more details on sanctions targeting major oil exporters, including Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
Crude oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday after Trump announced plans to boost U.S. oil and gas production by declaring a national emergency.
-The decrease in geopolitical risks also contributed to the decline in prices after the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
-Bitcoin price started a short-term bearish correction after setting a new all-time high. Bitcoin price is consolidating above $101,000 and could target a new increase.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2731.59
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2734.27, targeting 2740.70 and 2747.53
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2722.89. Target price 2716.44 and then 2708.61
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $76.26 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $76.74 levels, targeting $77.21 and then $77.78.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $76.07 level, targeting $75.54 and then $74.96.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.03794
Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.03641, targeting 1.03481 and then 1.03269.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.03869, targeting 1.04053 and then 1.04278.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.22808
Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.22586, targeting the price of 1.22345 and then 1.22123
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.22886, targeting 1.23127 and then 1.23413.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21635
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 21683, targeting 21786 then 21904
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21526 with target price 21401 then 21294
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) (December) 16:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index rose to around 108.5 on Tuesday, recovering some of the losses from the previous session after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was considering imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Feb. 1, citing concerns about illegal immigration at the U.S. border.
Trump also mentioned China, but did not provide further details.
The dollar has gained momentum since October, driven in part by concerns that Trump’s “America First” policies and pro-growth stance could spur inflation, which could prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates further.
However, signs of slowing inflation in the US have raised expectations of a more accommodative policy from the Federal Reserve, with markets now pricing in two 25 basis point rate cuts this year.
The dollar rose broadly, with the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso facing the biggest declines.
Gold prices rose to their highest in more than 10 weeks on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar fell following President Donald Trump’s inauguration and investors sought the yellow metal as a safe haven to hedge against uncertainty over his tariff plans.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures rose to around $76.8 a barrel on Tuesday, as traders digested a series of executive orders issued by U.S. President Donald Trump following his inauguration.
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