Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

• The dollar index held steady around 102.2 on Wednesday after losing 0.4% in the previous session, as traders piled on bets that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates next year.
• Gold remained flat amid hopes of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve; focus on U.S. inflation data.
• Fed’s Bostic: No “pressing need” to cut rates.
• Wall Street analysts said “gold is sure to hit a new high in 2024.”
• U.S. core personal consumption expenditures data is due on Friday.
• Oil is steady as traders monitor Red Sea tensions and U.S. supplies, with Brent crude trading at $79.00 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $74.00 a barrel.
• The Nikkei index in Tokyo closed up 1.37%.
• Australian stocks extend gains amid signs of falling inflation.
• BlackRock, Nasdaq, and the Securities and Exchange Commission met on Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, with Bitcoin prices trading above $42,000.

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

GOLD

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,040.62 

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,043.56, targeting a price of $2,048.62 and then $2,055.57.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,035.33, targeting a price of $2,028.89 and then $2,021.53.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

CRUDE OIL

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $74.12 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $74.37, targeting a price of $74.84 and then $75.40.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $73.69, targeting a price of $73.17 and then $72.58.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

EURUSD

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.09574

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.09508, targeting a price of $1.09348 and then $1.09135.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.09735, targeting a price of $1.09920 and then $1.10144.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

GBPUSD

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.27134

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of 1.27031, targeting a price of $1.26833 and then $1.26609.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.27367, targeting a price of $1.27653 and then $1.27874.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

NAS100

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $17,038

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $17,008, targeting a price of $16,966 and then $16,922.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $17,067, targeting a price of $17,106 and then $17,152.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

• UK Consumer Price Index (Annual) (November) at 11:00
• US Consumer Confidence Index (December) at 18:00
• US Existing Home Sales (November) at 18:00
• US Crude Oil Inventories at 18:30

Fundamental Analysis

• The dollar index held steady around 102.2 on Wednesday after losing 0.4% in the previous session, as traders piled on bets that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates next year.
• Despite recent pushback from some Fed officials, including Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and New York Fed President John Williams, traders still see a roughly 66% chance of the Fed cutting the federal funds rate for the first time as soon as March.
• Investors are now looking to the Fed’s preferred measure of core personal consumption expenditures, which is due out later this week, for further guidance.
• The dollar held onto its recent losses against most major currencies and continued to decline against commodity-linked currencies.
• Meanwhile, the dollar rose against the yen as the Bank of Japan kept its ultra-loose monetary policy and refrained from making any comments about a potential tweak next year.
• Gold prices held steady above the key $2,000 level on Wednesday, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Fed next year, as investors await U.S. inflation data later this week.
• Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday as investors monitored the situation in the Red Sea following recent attacks by Houthi rebels aligned with Iran.