Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

Dollar falls as safe-haven demand fades

The dollar index held steady at 106.1 on Wednesday after its recent decline as initial support for safe-haven currencies, prompted by the escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, faded.

Gold makes gains for the third session

Ukraine reportedly launched its first missile attack on a Russian border area using Western-supplied weapons, while President Putin expanded Russia’s nuclear doctrine to allow nuclear retaliation for conventional attacks.

Gold prices have now recovered about 38% of the losses they suffered in the first half of November, pressured by a strong US dollar and fading expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve after evidence of strong economic data emerged.

However, most investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, although the probability has fallen to 58% from 62% previously.

Investors are now looking ahead to upcoming comments from Federal Reserve officials for additional insights into the outlook for monetary policy.

-Gold prices may hold firm in the near term, albeit with a bullish bias to end the year slightly above current market levels. This is consistent with markets considering the macro outlook for 2025 and their analysis of future US policies.

-Weaker trading volumes towards the end of the year and potential profit taking could lead to some volatile price action. The break will be beneficial for the market in the long run.

“There may be more room to be more patient and selective about entry levels at this time.”

Gold prices rose in early Asian trading. The precious metal’s appeal as a safe-haven asset is supported by rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine fired long-range missiles supplied by the United States into Russia on Tuesday.

-Concerns over trade uncertainty and U.S. fiscal sustainability could also provide support for higher gold prices. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,635.88 an ounce.

Asian stocks traded cautiously on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to earnings from artificial intelligence company Nvidia where the risk of disappointment is high, while the dollar steadied after three straight sessions of declines.

Oil steady as traders weigh geopolitical risks, with Brent trading at $73.00 and WTI at $69.00

Ukraine reportedly launched its first missile attack on a Russian border area using Western-supplied weapons, while President Putin expanded Russia’s nuclear doctrine to allow nuclear retaliation for conventional attacks.

But fears eased after the International Atomic Energy Agency announced that Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels, which could ease tensions in the Middle East.

In addition, media reports indicated that Hezbollah agreed to an American proposal for a ceasefire with Israel.

Elsewhere, Equinor has resumed partial production at the Johan Sverdrup field, the largest oil field in Western Europe.

Meanwhile, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a sharp increase of 4.8 million barrels in US crude oil inventories last week, far exceeding the expected increase of 0.8 million barrels.

-Bitcoin price continues to consolidate its gains near the $91,000 area. Bitcoin is holding its gains and may soon target further gains above the $94,000 level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2629.32

Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2626.54, targeting 2620.09 and 2612.26

Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2637.92, targeting 2644.35 and then 2651.48

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $69.33 per barrel

Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below $68.82 levels, targeting $68.30 and then $67.72

Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $69.50 level, targeting $69.97 and then $70.53

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.05885

Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.05822, targeting 1.05655 and then 1.05442.

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.06042, targeting 1.06227 and then 1.06451.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27076

Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.26853, targeting the price of 1.26613 and then 1.26391

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.27154, targeting 1.27394 and then 1.27681.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20826

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 20870 with a target price of 20974 then 21092

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 20713 with a target price of 20589 then 20482

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From China Key Lending Rate 4:00
-From UK CPI (YoY) (Oct) 1000
-US Crude Oil Inventories 18:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady at 106.1 on Wednesday after its recent decline as initial support for safe-haven currencies, prompted by an escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, faded.

The dollar briefly rose on Tuesday after Russia decided to lower the threshold for a possible nuclear strike in response to Ukraine’s use of U.S. missiles.

However, geopolitical fears eased after Russia’s foreign minister said his country would “do everything possible” to avoid nuclear war, while the United States said it saw no reason to change its nuclear posture.

With these tensions easing, investors are now focusing on upcoming statements from Federal Reserve officials for insights on the timing and size of future interest rate cuts.

In addition, markets are closely watching political developments surrounding Donald Trump’s potential appointments, especially Treasury Secretary.

While the dollar lost some ground against most major currencies, it gained some strength against the yen.

Gold extended recent gains to around $2,640 an ounce on Wednesday, rising for a third straight session, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid renewed tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled above $69 a barrel on Wednesday, extending recent gains as geopolitical risk premiums rose following an escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine.