enDaily Analysis 20/03/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 103.4 on Thursday, near a five-month low, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but reiterated its forecast for two rate cuts this year.
The dollar faces difficulties as the Federal Reserve signals interest rate cuts.
Gold hits record high as Fed signals two rate cuts in 2025
Gold hits all-time high of $3,055.96 an ounce
The Federal Reserve keeps its benchmark overnight interest rate steady.
Bullion has hit 16 record highs so far in 2025.
The Israeli army resumes its ground operations in Gaza.
Dick Poon, general manager of Heraeus Metals Hong Kong Limited, said that gold is being driven by “a lot of uncertain market conditions, geopolitical tensions, a weak US dollar, and expectations of future interest rate cuts.”
The U.S. Federal Reserve held its benchmark overnight interest rate steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.50% on Wednesday. Policymakers expect the central bank to make two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of 2025.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Trump administration’s initial policies, including across-the-board tariffs on imports, appear to have tilted the U.S. economy toward slower growth and higher inflation, at least temporarily.
Trump’s tariffs, which have intensified trade tensions, are widely believed to cause inflation and hurt economic growth.
Uncertainty over tariffs, the possibility of interest rate cuts, and renewed tensions in the Middle East have contributed to gold’s record highs, pushing bullion to 16 record highs so far in 2025, four of which are above $3,000.
The Israeli military resumed ground operations in central and southern Gaza, while airstrikes killed at least 48 Palestinians, according to local health workers.
Non-yielding gold is considered a hedge against global uncertainty and thrives in a low interest rate environment.
“Given gold’s exceptionally strong performance in the first quarter, I believe a correction is not out of the question,” said Nicholas Frabel, head of global institutional markets at ABC Refinery.
Oil prices rose due to US data and Middle East tensions, with Brent crude trading at $71.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $67.00.
Prices rose after US government data showed a larger-than-expected drop in distillate inventories last week.
Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.8 million barrels last week, more than the 300,000-barrel draw expected in a Reuters poll.
However, US crude inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 512,000 barrels.
Global risk premiums rose after Israel launched a new ground operation in Gaza on Wednesday, following a breach of a nearly two-month ceasefire.
The United States also continued its airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen in response to the group’s attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Trump also pledged to hold Iran responsible for any future Houthi attacks.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Wednesday that a halt to strikes on energy facilities in the war with Russia could be achieved quickly, suggesting the two sides are moving closer to a potential ceasefire that could lead to sanctions relief and the return of Russian supplies to the market.
Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, said another round of talks between Russian and American officials aimed at halting the war will take place in Saudi Arabia on Sunday.
In the Americas, Chevron’s CEO asked the Trump administration for a 60-day extension to its deadline to end operations in Venezuela, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, extending the original April 1 deadline.
Long-term Bitcoin investors have resumed accumulating their investments, marking a significant shift in investor sentiment despite the market turmoil of recent weeks.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3050.17
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3056.11, targeting 3065.14 and 3073.30.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold after a breakout and hold below 3043.24, targeting 3036.23 and then 3029.08.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $67.24 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing below $66.83, targeting $66.47 and then $66.04.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil after breaking the $67.83 level, targeting $67.74 and then $68.08.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.09084
First scenario: Buy the EUR/USD after breaking 1.09254, targeting 1.09433 and then 1.09640.
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle close below 1.09002, targeting 108828 and then 1.08626.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.30060
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and stability above 1.30198, targeting 1.30374 and then 1.030573.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.29906, targeting 1.29707 and then 1.29517.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20080
Scenario 1: Sell the Nasdaq after breaking and closing below 19984, targeting 19879 and then 19771.
Alternative scenario: Buy the Nasdaq on a breakout and hold steady with a close above 20141, targeting 20260 and then 20368.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From Japan, holiday closed – Spring Equinox Day
From Switzerland, interest rate decision issued by the Swiss National Bank (Q1) 11:30
From Britain, the Bank of England’s inflation message, 15:00
From Britain, the Bank of England interest rate decision (March) 15:00
From the United States of America, unemployment claims rates are 15:30.
From the United States of America, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (March) 15:30
From the United States: Existing Home Sales (February) 17:00
From Canada: Speech by the Governor of the Bank of Canada 19:50
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 103.4 on Thursday, near a five-month low, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but reiterated its forecast for two rate cuts this year.
Officials said they still expect to cut interest rates by another half percentage point through 2025 despite uncertainty about President Donald Trump’s policies on trade, taxes, and deregulation.
The central bank also lowered its forecast for US growth while raising its inflation forecast.
However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed concerns about tariffs, describing their impact on inflation as likely to be short-lived or temporary.
Markets are now aligned with the Federal Reserve’s expectations, anticipating two interest rate cuts this year, with the first cut expected in June or July.
Investors are also awaiting weekly unemployment claims data on Thursday for further insights into the labor market.
Gold rose to an all-time high on Thursday after the Federal Reserve hinted at the possibility of two interest rate cuts this year, boosting the metal’s appeal amid ongoing geopolitical and economic woes.
Oil prices rose in early trading on Thursday as US fuel inventories fell and tensions in the Middle East escalated.
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