Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

Dollar falls as Trump’s second term nears

The dollar fell against major currencies on Monday as traders braced for a series of political announcements following Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Gold rises as Trump’s inauguration nears

Gold trims losses as investors await Trump’s inauguration speech

Gold falls 0.1% after falling 0.5% in early trading

Hamas releases three Israelis, Israel releases 90 Palestinians

Reuters poll: Fed keeps rates steady on Jan. 29, cuts again in March

“Gold has come under selling pressure today, but the precious metal’s status as a traditional safe-haven asset should limit the immediate downside,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

“If we hear a more conciliatory or softer tone from President Trump on trade and tariff policies, this could ease inflationary concerns, which could lead to a decline in the US dollar and Treasury yields, and gold is one potential asset that could benefit from this scenario.”

Market participants are eagerly awaiting Trump’s inauguration later today, and his broad trade policies are expected to ignite inflation and ignite trade wars, which could increase gold’s appeal as a safe haven.

Gold is used as a hedge against inflation, but rising interest rates reduce its appeal. It also acts as a safe haven asset.

The future path of interest rates in the United States will depend on how seriously the next administration implements Trump’s political pledges.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates steady on Jan. 29 and resume cutting them in March, according to a narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters.

Elsewhere, Hamas released three Israeli hostages and Israel freed 90 Palestinian prisoners on Sunday, the first day of a ceasefire that halted a 15-month war that has devastated the Gaza Strip and set the Middle East ablaze.

Oil falls as investors await Trump’s move on Russian export curbs, with Brent trading at $80.00 and WTI at $77.00

-New US sanctions affect short-term supplies, limit ship availability

Analysts: Trump may ease energy restrictions with Russia as part of deal on Ukraine war

– Ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is in effect

Trump, who will be inaugurated later on Monday, is widely expected to announce a series of policies in the early hours of his second term, including ending a temporary moratorium on U.S. liquefied natural gas export licenses — as part of a broader strategy to boost the economy.

“There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the markets heading into this week given President Trump’s inauguration and the raft of executive orders he is said to be planning to sign,” analysts at ING Bank said in a note.

“This, combined with the fact that today is a public holiday in the United States, means that some market participants may have decided to reduce some risks.”

Crude futures rose more than 1% last week, their fourth straight weekly gain, after the Biden administration imposed sanctions on more than 100 Russian tankers and oil producers. That prompted a rush by major buyers China and India to secure fast oil cargoes and a rush to get supplies by ship as Russian and Iranian oil traders sought unsanctioned tankers to carry their cargoes.

-Bitcoin price started a short-term bearish correction from the $106,250 area. Bitcoin price is consolidating above $100,000 and may target a new high.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2705.36

First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2710.82, targeting 2717.25 and 2724.38

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2699.44. Target price 2692.99 and then 2685.16

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $77.07 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $77.50 levels, targeting $77.97 and then $78.53.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $76.82 level, targeting $76.30 and then $75.72

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.03114

Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.02985, targeting 1.02825 and then 1.2612.

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.03212, targeting 1.03379 and then 1.03621.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.22042

Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the 1.21949 level, targeting the price of 1.21708 and then 1.21486

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.22249, targeting 1.22490 and then 1.22776.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 21631

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 21631 with a target price of 21786 then 21904

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21526 with target price 21401 then 21294

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

Today is a full US holiday – Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar fell against major currencies on Monday as traders braced for a series of political announcements following Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Markets are focused on his plans to raise tariffs, tighten immigration laws, cut taxes and step up regulatory deregulation, which are expected to have inflationary effects.

However, trading volumes are expected to remain thin throughout the session, as US markets are closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

Last week, the dollar index ended a six-week winning streak after a surprise slowdown in core U.S. inflation, coupled with weaker-than-expected producer price and retail sales data, fueled speculation of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year.

Markets are currently pricing in a total of 42 basis points of easing by 2025.

The dollar was broadly weak, with the biggest declines against the New Zealand and Australian dollars.

Gold pared early losses on Monday as investors looked ahead to Donald Trump’s inauguration speech for more clarity on the incoming administration’s policies, which could provide more clues on the path of interest rates at the Federal Reserve.

Oil prices fell on Monday as expectations grew that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump would ease restrictions on Russia’s energy sector in exchange for a deal to end the war in Ukraine, offsetting concerns about supply disruptions due to tighter sanctions.