enDaily Analysis 19/03/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 103.3 on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision, with the central bank widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.
Gold hovers near record high as Middle East tensions and US tariff concerns persist.
Palestinian health authorities said Israeli airstrikes pounded the Gaza Strip, killing more than 400 people on Tuesday, shattering nearly two months of relative calm since a ceasefire began, while Israel warned the offensive was “just the beginning.”
Investors are concerned about an economic slowdown and rising recession risks due to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which are widely believed to be likely to stoke inflation.
Tariffs have exacerbated trade tensions, including a flat 25% tax on steel and aluminum, which took effect in February, and reciprocal and sectoral tariffs that will be imposed on April 2.
Gold, historically considered a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty, has gained more than 15% since the beginning of the year.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve, which will conclude its two-day policy meeting later today, is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range.
Market participants also awaited Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech following the interest rate decision for clues on the central bank’s monetary policy path.
Non-yielding gold thrives in a low interest rate environment.
Oil prices fell amid hopes of a resolution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with Brent crude trading at $70.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $66.00.
Russian President Putin agreed to a limited ceasefire against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during a phone call with President Trump on Tuesday.
“The reason for this is that any progress in the peace process will increase the chances of lifting sanctions on Russian oil shipments, which will increase global supplies,” Fawad Razaqzadeh said in an email.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures for next month delivery fell 0.2% to $66.74 a barrel, while Brent crude futures for next month delivery fell 0.2% to $70.44 a barrel.
Bitcoin’s price may see further declines, as a cryptocurrency analyst has spotted a new bear market indicator that portends an imminent collapse to $40,000. The analyst predicted when this sharp price drop would occur, warning investors to be cautious or risk selling at a loss.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3032.49
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3038.19, targeting 3047.22 and 3055.39.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a breakout and hold below 3025.32, targeting 3018.31 and then 3011.17.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $66.52 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing below $66.27, targeting $65.91 and then $65.48.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil after breaking the $66.82 level, targeting $67.18 and then $67.52.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.09420
First scenario: Buy the EUR/USD after breaking 1.09510, targeting 1.09689 and then 1.09896.
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing below 1.09258, targeting 1.09084 and then 1.08882.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.29998
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.30109, targeting 1.30285 and then 1.30484.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.29818, targeting 1.29619 and then 1.29429.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19761
Scenario 1: Sell the Nasdaq after a break and close below 19,711, targeting 19,607 and then 19,499.
Alternative scenario: Buy the Nasdaq on a breakout and hold steady with a close above 19,868, targeting 19,988 and then 20,095.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From Japan, the interest rate decision issued by the Bank of Japan at 5:30
From Europe: Consumer Price Index (YoY) (February) 13:00
– From the USA: US Crude Oil Inventories 16:30:
FOMC Economic Forecast 21:00:
FOMC Report 21:00:
US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision 21:00:
Federal Reserve Press Conference 21:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 103.3 on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision, with the central bank widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.
Market focus will be on the Federal Reserve’s quarterly updates on interest rate expectations and its forecasts for growth, inflation, and unemployment.
Meanwhile, the dollar remained near five-month lows as President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies fueled economic uncertainty.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant told Fox News that while the US economy remains fundamentally strong, he cannot rule out the possibility of a recession.
The dollar also faced pressure from a stronger euro after the German parliament approved increased spending on defense and infrastructure.
Gold prices fell on Wednesday, falling slightly below the previous session’s record high, supported by safe-haven demand stemming from geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over tariffs, as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
Oil prices fell slightly at the start of the Asian session amid hopes for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
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