enDaily Analysis 20/02/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 107 on Thursday, struggling to find a clear direction as investors assessed the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting and ongoing developments in trade policy.
Gold hits new record high on Trump tariff fears
Trump Policies Raise Inflation Fears at Fed, Minutes Say
Gold hits record high of $2,947.11 per ounce, up 12% so far in 2025
Safe-haven demand may dry up somewhat after Ukraine peace deal – analyst
“The uncertain outlook for global trade and inflation is proving favourable for gold and is working to bring the $3,000 level into range,” said Tim Waterer, senior market analyst at KCM Trade.
Since taking office, Trump has imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese imports and 25% on steel and aluminum. He said Wednesday he would announce tariffs on lumber, autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals “in the next month or so.”
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting on Wednesday showed that Trump’s initial policy proposals raised concerns about rising inflation and confirmed a continued pause in interest rate cuts.
Despite the chances of fewer rate cuts this year, market participants maintain their bullish outlook for gold overall.
“Gold has benefited and should continue to benefit from strong demand in the physical market, supported by flexible central bank buying and as physical gold ETFs move from sellers to marginal buyers,” said Trevor Yates, an analyst at GlobalX.
Gold is seen as a hedge against geopolitical risk and inflation, but rising interest rates are dampening the appeal of non-yielding assets.
“If we look at the potential downside risks to gold prices, safe-haven demand could dry up somewhat if the Russia-Ukraine peace deal gets closer to completion,” Waterer said.
Trump denounced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a “dictator” and warned that he must act quickly to secure peace or risk losing his country.
Oil prices fall after a report of a rise in US crude inventories, with Brent crude trading at $76.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $72.00.
Oil prices held near a one-week high on Wednesday.
In addition to rising U.S. inventories, the Trump administration’s announced tariffs on imports could weigh on oil prices by raising the cost of consumer goods, weakening the global economy and reducing demand for fuel. Concerns about European and Chinese demand have also helped keep prices in check.
“It is natural to be concerned about the global economic outlook with Donald Trump smashing the current global ‘free trade architecture’ with a sledgehammer with hints of a 25% tariff on car imports to the US,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Bank.
Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Israel and Hamas will begin indirect negotiations on the second phase of a Gaza ceasefire, which could negatively impact oil prices by reducing the risk of further supply disruptions.
But concerns about other oil supply flows limited losses. Russia said oil flows through the Caspian Sea pipeline, a key route for crude exports from Kazakhstan, fell by 30% to 40% on Tuesday after a drone attack in Ukraine on a pumping station. A 30% cut would be equivalent to a loss of 380,000 barrels per day of supply to the market, Reuters calculations show.
U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.34 million barrels last week, market sources said on Wednesday, citing data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.83 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 2.69 million barrels, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Official oil inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due out on Thursday. Both reports were delayed by a day due to a U.S. holiday on Monday.
-Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $94,500 area. Bitcoin price is rising within a range and may revisit the $98,000 resistance area.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2949.22
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2951.35, targeting 2957.78 and 2964.91. Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2939.97, targeting 2933.52 and then 2925.68.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $72.12 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $72.29 levels, targeting $72.76 and then $73.32.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $71.61 level, targeting $71.09 and then $70.50
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.04295
First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.04405, targeting 1.04590 and then 1.04814.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.04178, targeting 1.04018 and then 1.03805.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: .1.26003
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.26098, targeting the price of 1.26339 and then 1.26625.
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.25798, targeting 1.25557 and then 1.25335
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 22161
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 22258 with a target price of 22362 then 22480
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 22101 with target price of 21977 then 21870
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
USA Unemployment Claims Rate 16:30
USA Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) 16:30
US Crude Oil Inventories
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around the 107 level on Thursday, struggling to find a clear direction as investors assessed the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting and ongoing developments in trade policy.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting highlighted policymakers’ focus on the need for more evidence of continued deflation, while also warning of inflation risks from potential shifts in trade and immigration, geopolitical turmoil and strong household spending.
The minutes were consistent with previous statements by Fed Chairman Powell that the bank is in no rush to cut interest rates further.
In parallel, President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on imports of cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, effective April 2.
Investors are currently pricing in one rate cut in 2025, with some speculating that a second cut could be possible.
Gold prices rose to a record high on Thursday as investors turned to the metal for safety amid concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans could stoke inflation and a global trade war.
Oil prices fell slightly on Thursday after an industry report showed a build in U.S. crude inventories and as tariff concerns weighed on sentiment, paring gains made in the previous session on worries about supply disruptions in Russia.
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