Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index held onto recent gains, holding around 107 on Wednesday, as President Donald Trump’s escalating threats of tariffs stoked concerns about inflation.

Gold falls as investors take profits, await Russia-Ukraine peace talks

Gold falls $12 from record high of $2,942.70

Analysts say gold’s rally remains limited

Trump says he will impose 25% tariffs on cars

Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting are due out later.

“Gold’s upside remains limited as the first round of talks between the US and Russia on a possible peace deal in Ukraine ends without a clear path but if they come out with a solid plan then it could definitely be negative for gold,” said Ajay Kedia, director of Mumbai-based Kedia Commodities.

“There should be technical profit taking as the war premium should be eroded a bit. The upside could be capped at $2970 as resistance and $2890 as support.”

The Trump administration said Tuesday it had agreed to further talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine after initial peace talks between Russia and Ukraine ended without Kiev or Europe at the table.

Bullion is seen as a traditional hedge against rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

The market is now awaiting the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, due later today, for clues on the path of the US central bank’s interest rates this year amid uncertainty over the impact of the Trump administration’s trade policies on the economy.

“The Trump presidency creates macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty that is likely to prompt investors to diversify their gold investments,” analysts at ANZ Bank said, adding that investment demand will benefit from macroeconomic, geopolitical, trade and financial risks.

Trump said Tuesday he intends to impose a “25%” tariff on cars and similar duties on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports.

Oil rises on concerns over US, Russian supplies; market seeks clarity on Ukraine talks; Brent trades at $76.00, WTI at $72.00

“The psychologically important $70 level appears to have held, helped by a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil pumping station and concerns that cold weather in the US could tighten supply,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.

“In addition, there is some speculation that OPEC+ may decide to postpone the planned supply increase in April,” he added, referring to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.

Russia said oil flows through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, a key route for crude exports from Kazakhstan, fell by 30% to 40% on Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station. A 30% cut would be equivalent to a loss of 380,000 barrels per day of supply to the market, according to Reuters calculations.

Meanwhile, cold weather has threatened U.S. oil supplies, with the North Dakota Pipeline Authority estimating that production in the nation’s third-largest producing state will fall by as much as 150,000 barrels per day.

The Trump administration said Tuesday it had agreed to further talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine, a deal that could ease or help lift sanctions that have disrupted Russian oil shipments.

-Bitcoin price started to decline again below the $96,200 area. Bitcoin is retesting the support area at $95,000 and may struggle to recover losses.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2933.22

First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2944.16, targeting 2944.16 and 2951.29

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2926.35. Target price 2919.90 and then 2912.07

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $72.23 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $72.47 levels, targeting $72.94 and then $73.51.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking $71.79 with a target price of $71.27 then $70.69

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.04535

Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.04667, targeting 1.04851 and then 1.05076.

Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability by closing a candle below 1.04439, targeting 1.04280 and then 1.0467.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: .1.26288

Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.26363, targeting the price of 1.26603 and then 1.26800.

Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD with a break and stability with a close below 1.26062, targeting 1.25822 and then 1.25600

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 22256

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 22312, targeting 22415 then 22533

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 22155 with a target price of 22030 then 21923

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (January) 10:00
-USA FOMC Meeting Minutes 22:00

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held onto recent gains, holding around 107 on Wednesday, as President Donald Trump’s escalating threats of tariffs stoked concerns about inflation.

Trump on Tuesday announced plans to impose tariffs on cars of nearly 25%, as well as similar duties on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports.

Geopolitical tensions also supported the dollar, especially after the United States excluded European countries from peace negotiations with Russia over the ongoing war in Ukraine.

On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve officials stressed their cautious approach to further interest rate cuts, emphasizing their focus on reducing inflation.

Currently, markets expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by about 35 basis points this year.

Traders are now awaiting the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes for additional insights into future interest rate expectations.

Gold prices fell on Wednesday, as investors booked profits after recent record highs and awaited peace talks after the Trump administration agreed to further discussions with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine.

Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday amid concerns over supply disruptions from the United States and Russia, and as markets awaited clarity on peace talks in Ukraine.