enDaily Analysis 18/03/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The US dollar fell to a near five-month low against the euro and other major currencies on Tuesday as investors grappled with the potential economic impact of rising global trade tensions.
The dollar stabilizes near a five-month low and struggles to shake off growth concerns.
The dollar struggles around recent lows ahead of the Fed meeting.
The euro holds near a five-month high before Germany votes on the stimulus package.
Central bank meetings this week focus on future guidance.
*Gold hovers around $3,000 ahead of US interest rate decision
New economic forecasts from Federal Reserve officials this week will provide the most concrete evidence yet of how U.S. central bankers view the potential impact of Trump administration policies that have clouded previously strong economic forecasts.
Leading forecasters have lowered their growth forecasts for this year, raised the risk of a recession, and predicted higher inflation as President Donald Trump’s tariffs spill over into global markets.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady in a range of 4.25%–4.50% at the end of its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Trump said he will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday morning about ending the war in Ukraine.
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he would hold Iran responsible for any attacks carried out by the Houthi group it supports in Yemen, as his administration expanded the largest US military operation in the Middle East since Trump returned to the White House.
An Israeli airstrike killed three Palestinians in Gaza on Monday as they were trying to collect firewood, medics said, with no sign of progress in renewed talks on maintaining a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
*Non-yielding gold is considered a hedge against political risk and inflation and thrives in a low interest rate environment.
Oil prices are falling, affected by slowdown fears, Chinese data, and Middle East risks,
with Brent crude trading at $71.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $67.00.
“Essentially, economic uncertainty is overshadowing geopolitical tensions,” said independent market analyst Tina Teng.
“The positive data from China needs to continue to gain market confidence, as the outlook for global demand remains weak amid tariffs and ceasefire talks in the Ukraine war.”
Chinese economic data on Monday showed retail sales growth accelerated in January and February, giving investors cause for optimism, despite a decline in factory output and a two-year high in urban unemployment.
Prices also continued to receive support from President Donald Trump’s pledge to continue the US attack on the Houthis in Yemen unless the group halts its attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
Meanwhile, Tuesday’s talks between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on ending the war in Ukraine were the focus of attention. Markets believe any potential peace negotiations will include the easing of sanctions on Russia and the return of Russian crude oil supplies to global markets, which would negatively impact prices.
Highlighting ongoing concerns about demand, the other major risk to oil, the OECD said on Monday that Trump’s tariffs would depress growth in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, which would negatively impact global energy demand.
Data shows that the Bitcoin futures market has recently seen a significant decline in leverage. Here’s what this improvement could mean for Bitcoin, based on past trends.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3006.52
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 3010.62, targeting 3019.65 and 3027.82.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a breakout and hold below 2997.75, targeting 2990.74 and then 2983.80.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $67.50 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing below $67.16, targeting $66.71 and then $66.28.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil after breaking the $67.62 level, targeting $67.98 and then $68.33.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.09083
First scenario: Buy the EUR/USD after breaking 1.09233, targeting 1.09413 and then 1.09619.
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing below 1.08998, targeting 1.08807 and then 1.08606.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.29743
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.29978, targeting 1.30154 and then 1.30353.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.29687, targeting 1.29488 and then 1.29298.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19967
Scenario 1: Sell the Nasdaq after breaking and closing below 19916, targeting 19812 and then 19703.
Alternative scenario: Buy the Nasdaq on a breakout and hold steady with a close above 20,073, targeting 20,193 and then 20,300.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) (February) 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar fell to a near five-month low against the euro and other major currencies on Tuesday as investors grappled with the potential economic impact of rising global trade tensions.
Fears that US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies could lead to a broader economic slowdown have undermined the dollar amid a series of opinion polls showing weak confidence.
The US currency did not receive much support from retail sales data released on Monday, which showed a modest recovery in February after a revised 1.2% decline in January.
Germany’s Constitutional Court on Monday rejected new appeals filed by opposition parties against a potential coalition government plan, paving the way for parliament to convene on Tuesday to consider the matter.
The package includes a €500 billion ($544 billion) infrastructure fund and sweeping changes to borrowing rules to support defense and revive growth in Europe’s largest economy.
On the monetary policy front, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at their meetings this week, keeping markets focused on any future guidance from officials.
The Federal Reserve is also scheduled to release new economic forecasts, which will provide the most concrete evidence yet of how US central bankers view the potential impact of the Trump administration’s policies on the economy.
Gold held near $3,000 on Tuesday, hovering near last week’s all-time high, as investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision to gauge the country’s economic outlook amid tariffs and trade tensions.
Oil prices were little changed in early trading on Tuesday as global growth concerns, US tariffs, and ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine offset increased instability in the Middle East, which could impact supplies.
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