enDaily Analysis 17/12/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
Dollar falls ahead of Fed decision
The dollar index fell to around 106.7 on Tuesday as investors took a cautious stance ahead of a highly anticipated monetary policy announcement from the Federal Reserve.
Gold steady ahead of Fed meeting
The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but uncertainty remains about the extent of future easing, especially with inflation likely to rise under the incoming Trump administration.
Recent data showed that U.S. private sector activity grew at a faster pace in December, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may limit interest rate cuts next year, which could dampen demand for the precious metal.
However, gold has risen about 29% this year, on track for its biggest annual gain since 2010, driven by easing monetary policy in the United States, strong demand for safe-haven assets, and continued buying by global central banks.
Gold steady ahead of Fed meeting
-Gold is steady in early Asian trade as markets await the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision this week. The main focus is not only on the size of the rate cut but also on the central bank’s updated economic forecasts,
These forecasts include economic growth, inflation and unemployment prospects. Elizondia adds that forecasts can provide crucial insights into the future path of monetary policy and have a significant impact on market sentiment and gold prices.
Asian stocks rose and the dollar steadied on Tuesday as traders braced for a series of central bank meetings this week that are likely to see the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates and the Bank of Japan keep its policy unchanged for now.
Oil pares early losses, Fed meeting in focus as Brent trades at $73.00, WTI at $69.00
However, concerns about weak global demand weighed on prices.
Weak Chinese economic data has added to uncertainty over the country’s economic outlook, raising concerns about lower consumption by the world’s largest importer of crude oil.
This, coupled with expectations of increased supply next year, has overshadowed ongoing geopolitical tensions in Russia and the Middle East. Further downward pressure has come from weak manufacturing activity in the US and the eurozone, which is weighing on fuel demand and crude oil prices.
-Bitcoin price started rising again above the $105,000 resistance area. Bitcoin is gaining momentum and is trading at a new all-time high above $107,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2652.21
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2658.02, targeting 2664.45 and then 2671.58
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2646.64 with a target price of 2640.19 and 2632.36
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $70.31 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $70.57 levels, targeting $71.04 and then $71.60.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking $69.89 with a target price of $69.37 then $68.78
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.04964
Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.04893, targeting 1.04733 and then 1.04520.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.05116, targeting 1.05305 and then 1.05529.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.27000
Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.26835 level, targeting the price of 1.26595 and then 1.26373
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.27135, targeting 1.27376 and then 1.27663.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 22345
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 22442, targeting 22545 then 22663
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 22285 with a target price of 22160 then 22053
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From USA Core Retail Sales (MoM) (November) 16:30
-From USA Retail Sales Index (MoM) (November) 16:30
-From Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) (November) 16:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index fell to around 106.7 on Tuesday as investors took a cautious stance ahead of a highly anticipated monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve.
The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, but traders are primarily focusing on updated economic forecasts, particularly expectations for a rate cut in 2025.
Market expectations for further rate cuts next year have receded, amid concerns about a possible return of inflation, especially with Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House.
Gold held steady around $2,650 an ounce on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting, with investors closely watching the central bank’s outlook for 2025.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures hovered around $70.8 a barrel on Tuesday, paring earlier losses as investors prepared for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision this year, when it is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points.
On the economic front, the latest Flash Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) revealed stronger-than-expected growth in private sector activity this month, driven by a rise in services, while manufacturing continued to struggle.
In addition, investors are closely watching policy decisions from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, both of which are set to announce their latest moves this week.
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