enDaily Analysis 17/03/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The US dollar held near a five-month low against its major counterparts on Monday, pressured by President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policies and a string of weak macroeconomic data.
Growing concerns about the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs
The euro is approaching a five-month high after Germany agreed to a fiscal deal.
The yen is steady ahead of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
The yuan’s value rises as Beijing takes steps to boost consumption.
*Gold rises as geopolitical and economic concerns persist.
The US Defense Secretary said Sunday that the United States will continue to attack the Houthis in Yemen until they end their attacks on shipping, while the Iran-aligned group indicated it may escalate its operations in response to deadly US strikes the previous day.
The Gaza Health Ministry said on Sunday that Israeli military strikes killed at least 15 Palestinians in the enclave over the past 24 hours, as Arab and American mediators work to bolster a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said in an interview broadcast Sunday that there are “no guarantees” that a recession will not occur in the United States, although there may be an adjustment.
US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in nearly two and a half years in March, and inflation expectations rose amid concerns that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which sparked a trade war, will boost prices and undermine the economy.
*Gold is seen as a hedge against political risk and inflation, and has risen about 14% so far in 2025.
*Markets are now awaiting the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
*Non-yielding gold bullion thrives in a low interest rate environment.
Oil prices rise amid geopolitical concerns, with Brent crude trading at $71.00 and WTI at $67.00.
This led to Ukraine’s withdrawal from most of the Russian region, depriving it of a bargaining chip in peace talks.
Oil prices may also have received support from the US Treasury Department’s announcement late last week that it was tightening sanctions on Iran, targeting the Iranian oil minister and several shipping companies.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures for next month delivery rose 1.7% to $68.31 a barrel, while Brent crude futures for next month delivery rose 1.6% to $71.73 a barrel.
An analyst revealed on Friday that Bitcoin could suffer a 91% decline from its all-time high of $109,000 per coin in January 2025, suggesting that the most popular cryptocurrency could collapse.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2990.99
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2995.92, targeting 3004.95 and 3013.12.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold after a breakout and hold below 2983.06, targeting 2976.04 and then 2968.90.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $67.62 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing below $67.53, targeting $67.17 and then $66.74.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil after breaking the $68.07 level, targeting $68.43 and then $68.78.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08810
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD after breaking 1.08915, targeting 1.09094 and then 1.09301.
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle close below 1.08689, targeting 1.08489 and then 1.08287.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.29371
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.29432, targeting 1.29621 and then 1.29820.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.29153, targeting 1.28954 and then 1.28764.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19613
Scenario 1: Sell the Nasdaq after breaking and closing below 19,519, targeting 19,415 and then 19,307.
Alternative scenario: Buy the Nasdaq on a breakout and hold steady with a close above 19,677, targeting 19,796 and then 19,903.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From the United States of America Core Retail Sales (MoM) (February) 15:30
-From the United States of America Retail Sales (MoM) (February) 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar held near a five-month low against its major counterparts on Monday, pressured by President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policies and a string of weak macroeconomic data.
The euro was not far from a five-month high after German parties agreed on Friday on a fiscal deal that would boost defense spending and revive growth in Europe’s largest economy.
“Macro markets have seen two stark shifts over the past month,” said Goldman Sachs analysts Dominic Wilson and Kamakshya Trivedi.
The first is a “sharp downward revaluation” of US assets “against the backdrop of tariff volatility and the broader political uncertainty created by the new administration,” while the second is a “sharp upward revaluation of Germany’s fiscal stimulus,” the analysts wrote in a note to clients.
“These two shifts together pose a significant challenge to the narrative of American exceptionalism that has been a dominant theme in the market,” they said.
Gold rose on Monday after hitting a historic high last week, as geopolitical tensions, concerns over tariffs, escalating trade frictions, and rising hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut continued to fuel safe-haven demand.
Oil prices rose amid fading optimism about peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. A rapid Russian advance in recent days overcame a Ukrainian military adventure in the Kursk Oblast. This led to Ukraine’s withdrawal from most of the Russian region, depriving it of a bargaining chip in the peace talks.
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