Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

Dollar holds down amid slowing inflation

The dollar index held steady around 109.2 on Wednesday, remaining near a two-year high as investors awaited the December consumer inflation report, which could influence the future direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Gold prices hover near one-month high amid renewed hopes for rate cuts

Gold hits highest level since Dec. 12 Gold is stable at its highest level in more than a month

-Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire agreement in Gaza

Progress in reducing inflation rates may prompt the Federal Open Market Committee to ease monetary policy. “The easing of core inflation in the US has revived hopes that the Fed will adopt a less restrictive policy this year,” said Jigar Trivedi, senior analyst at Reliance Securities.

“Core inflation slowed unexpectedly, while headline consumer prices showed no major upside surprises.”

“This has helped support demand for gold, as progress in reducing inflation rates may prompt the Federal Open Market Committee to ease monetary policy, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.”

Concerns remain about potential tariffs imposed by the administration of US President-elect Donald Trump, which could exacerbate inflationary pressures.

– U.S. central bank officials said data released Wednesday showed U.S. inflation continues to ease even as they noted growing uncertainty in the coming months as they await a first glimpse of the Trump administration’s incoming policies.

Gold was supported by a decline in the dollar on Thursday, keeping it close to recent peaks after cold US inflation data led to a decline in bond yields.

The odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut have risen further this year after the data, with interest rate futures traders on Wednesday pricing in roughly even odds that the U.S. central bank will cut rates twice by the end of the year, with the first cut in June.

Elsewhere, Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire and hostage release agreement, reducing the metal’s safety appeal, Trivedi said.

Oil rises as supply concerns grow over falling US inventories, with Brent trading at $82.00 and WTI at $78.00

-Brent, WTI crude near six-month highs

-US crude inventories fall more than expected

-Demand for festivals in India and China is expected to rise.

-The US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that crude oil inventories in the United States fell last week to their lowest levels since April 2022 as exports rose and imports fell.

The 2 million-barrel drop was more than the 992,000-barrel decline analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll.

The drop added to a tightening global supply outlook after the United States imposed broader sanctions on Russian oil producers and tankers. The new U.S. sanctions have prompted Moscow’s top customers to scour the world for alternative barrels, while freight rates have also risen.

The Biden administration on Wednesday imposed hundreds of additional sanctions targeting Russia’s military-industrial base and evasion schemes.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, which have collectively cut production over the past two years, are likely to be cautious about increasing supplies despite the recent price rally, said Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston.

“The producer group’s optimism has waned repeatedly over the past year, and it is likely to err on the side of caution before starting the process of easing the cuts,” Johnston said.

In the context of limiting oil gains, Israel and Hamas agreed to a deal to stop fighting in Gaza and exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, according to an official.

– On the demand side, global oil demand rose by 1.2 million barrels per day in the first two weeks of 2025 compared to the same period a year earlier, slightly below expectations, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note.
– Analysts expect oil demand to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day year-on-year in the coming weeks, driven by increased travel activity in India, where a huge festival is being held, as well as travel for the Lunar New Year celebrations in China in late January.

Some investors are also anticipating a possible interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve before the end of the year following data indicating a decline in core inflation in the United States – which could support economic activity and energy consumption.

-Bitcoin price is trying to make a recovery wave above the $98,000 area. Bitcoin price is rising and is now struggling to settle above the $100,000 area.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2693.96

First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2702.56, targeting 2708.99 and 2716.12

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2691.18. Target price 2684.73 and then 2676.89

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $78.72 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $79.17 levels, targeting $79.64 and then $80.20.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking $78.49 with a target price of $77.97 then $77.38

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.02851

Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.02785, targeting 1.02625 and then 1.02412.

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.03012, targeting 1.03197 and then 1.03421.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.22113

Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the 1.22039 level, targeting the price of 1.21798 and then 1.21576

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.22339, targeting 1.22579 and then 1.22866.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 21377

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21462 with a target price of 21565 then 21683

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 21305 with a target price of 21180 then 21073

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From UK GDP (MoM) (November) 10:00
-From Germany German CPI (MoM) (December) 10:00

-From USA Core Retail Sales (MoM) (December) 16:30

-From the United States of America, the unemployment claims rate index 16:30

-From USA Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (January) 16:30

-From USA Retail Sales Index (MoM) (December) 16:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index stabilized around 109 in trading on Thursday after falling for three consecutive sessions, as signs of slowing inflation in the United States reinforced expectations of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve this year.

U.S. core inflation rose 3.2% year-on-year in December, slowing from 3.3% in November, which was also expected. On a monthly basis, core inflation eased to 0.2% from 0.3%, in line with expectations.

The inflation data led to a sharp decline in the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, which fell by about 14 basis points to about 4.65%.

Market participants also priced in an additional 10 basis points of rate easing from the Fed this year, bringing the total expected cuts to 37 basis points.

However, the dollar’s decline was somewhat limited by concerns about incoming President Trump’s political plans, particularly regarding tariffs, which are seen as potentially inflationary.

Gold prices steadied on Thursday after hitting their highest in more than a month, as weaker U.S. core inflation data raised expectations for interest rate cuts, although news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas capped further gains.

Oil prices rose for a second straight session on Thursday, supported by supply concerns amid U.S. sanctions on Russia, a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories and an improving outlook for global demand.