Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The US dollar index rose towards 100 on Tuesday, recovering slightly from recent lows as sentiment around the US economic outlook showed signs of stabilizing.

Gold rises as markets are affected by uncertainty over US tariffs.

Analysts say gold’s uptrend remains intact.

The Fed’s Boucek says the US central bank should hold steady until there’s clarity on tariffs.

Gold hit an all-time high in the last session.

“Gold continues to rise today… as investors continue to seek defensive assets to mitigate portfolio volatility, as the US appears to be paving the way for further tariffs,” said IG Market Strategist Yip Junrong.

The United States is moving forward with investigations into imports of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors as part of an effort to impose tariffs on both sectors on the grounds that heavy reliance on foreign production of pharmaceuticals and chips poses a national security threat, Federal Register filings showed Monday.

Trump said on Sunday that he would announce the tariff rate on imported semiconductors next week, keeping market participants on edge.

With gold prices recently hitting a new record high, the uptrend remains intact, and as long as uncertainty over tariffs persists, gold may remain supported, Yip said.

Meanwhile, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bousik said that uncertainty surrounding tariffs and other policies has put the economy on a “significant pause,” and suggested the Fed remain on hold until there is more clarity.

Non-yielding gold acts as a hedge against global uncertainty and inflation and tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment.

Data from the World Gold Council showed that investments in Chinese physically backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) so far this month have exceeded those for the entire first quarter and outpaced inflows into US-listed funds.

Oil rises on potential US auto tariff waivers and increased Chinese crude imports, with Brent trading at $64.00 and WTI at $61.00.

Trump granted exemptions from tariffs on electronics and indicated he would ease tariffs on cars, both of which are seen as reversals of previously announced import tariffs, thus providing some relief for riskier assets, including oil.

“However, the rise in stock markets and growth-linked commodities is questionable, as his policy is unpredictable.”

In the latest development in Trump’s trade war, he said he is considering adjusting the 25% tariff on imports of foreign cars and auto parts from Mexico, Canada, and elsewhere.

Uncertain US trade policies have created uncertainty in global oil markets and prompted OPEC on Monday to lower its demand forecast for the first time since December.

The Trump administration announced on Friday that it would grant exemptions from tariffs on smartphones, computers, and some other electronic goods, most of which are imported from China. This led to a slight rise in crude oil prices on Monday.

Trump said on Sunday he would announce tariff rates on imported semiconductors next week, and a Federal Register filing on Monday showed the administration launched an investigation into semiconductor imports on April 1.

“The market is absorbing the rapid political developments on the tariff front, while balancing them with the nuclear talks between the United States and Iran,” analysts at ING Bank said in a note on Tuesday.

“The market is clearly more focused on the tariffs and what they mean for oil demand.”

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday that the United States may halt Iranian oil exports as part of Trump’s plan to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program.

Bitcoin price began a fresh rally above $83,500. Bitcoin is now consolidating its gains and may attempt to surpass the resistance level at $85,500.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 3225.38

First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 3233.56, targeting 3242.59 and 3250.75.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3220.69, targeting 3213.68 and then 3206.54.

Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $61.25 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing above $61.49, targeting $61.85 and then $62.20.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking $60.94, targeting $60.58 and then $60.15.

Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.13531

First scenario: Buy the EUR/USD after breaking 1.13796, targeting 1.14057 and then 1.14264.

Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle close below 1.13260, targeting 1.13086 and then 1.12884.

Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.32051

Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.32231, targeting 1.32408 and then 1.32606.

Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.31940, targeting 1.31741 and then 1.31551.

Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18888

Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq after a breakout and close above 18991, targeting 19111 and then 19218.

Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq after a break and close below 18,834, targeting 18,729 and then 18,621.

Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) (March) 15:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The US dollar index rose towards 100 on Tuesday, recovering slightly from recent lows as sentiment around the US economic outlook showed signs of stabilizing.

The rebound followed President Trump’s decision to exempt key technology products from reciprocal tariffs and reports of a potential halt to the 25% tariff on auto imports.

Despite the improved mood, caution remained, with the US Department of Commerce launching a national security investigation into semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports.

On the policy front, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller downplayed the inflation risks posed by tariffs, describing them as likely “transitory.” He also emphasized that the bank remains open to further interest rate cuts, indicating that supporting economic growth will take priority over responding to short-term inflation pressures.

The dollar’s recovery follows a sharp three-day slide, when it fell to its lowest levels in three years amid growing policy uncertainty and a widespread sell-off in US assets.

Gold prices rose on Tuesday amid continued uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans and their impact on the global economy.

Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday, supported by new tariff waivers announced by US President Donald Trump and a rebound in Chinese crude oil imports in anticipation of lower Iranian supplies.