enDaily Analysis 15/01/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
Dollar rally pauses ahead of CPI report
The dollar index held steady around 109.2 on Wednesday, remaining near a two-year high as investors awaited the December consumer inflation report, which could influence the future direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Gold falls as attention turns to US inflation data
-US CPI data will be released at 16:30 Mecca time.
Gold falls ahead of US CPI data
Donald Trump begins his second term next week.
“If the CPI data comes in higher, it could lead to gold falling as this somewhat reinforces the view that the Fed is likely to normalize the dovish policy it pursued last year in 2025,” said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA.
Market participants will be closely watching data due at 1330 GMT after last week’s huge jobs report underscored the strength of the US economy and prompted traders to scale back bets on further monetary easing at the Federal Reserve.
A Reuters poll forecast an annual rise of 2.9% versus 2.7% in November 2024 and a monthly increase of 0.3%.
Gold extended gains on Tuesday after data showed the producer price index rose on a year-on-year basis in December, slightly boosting hopes the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates this year.
Meanwhile, traders have fully priced in a pause in interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting. (FEDWATCH)
As President-elect Donald Trump begins his second term next week, the focus remains on his policies, which analysts expect will lead to higher inflation.
Non-yielding bullion is used as a hedge against inflation, although higher interest rates reduce its attractiveness.
“If gold prices fall further out of the November range and below $2,600, the next key level will be around $2,540 and I think that could be an attractive level for long-term investors,” Wong said.
Oil was little changed as a decline in US inventories outweighed expectations of weak demand,
with Brent crude trading at $80.00 and WTI at $76.00.
Prices fell on Tuesday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast that oil will come under pressure over the next two years as supply outpaces demand.
But the market found support on Wednesday from a drop in crude inventories in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, according to a report from the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday and expectations of supply disruptions after the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers and its shadow fleet of tankers.
“Oil prices are trading stronger in early morning trading in Asia today after figures from the American Petroleum Institute showed that US crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week,” analysts at ING said.
Analysts added that while crude oil inventories at the nation’s main storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, increased by 600,000 barrels, inventories remain historically low. Cushing is the delivery site for West Texas Intermediate crude futures.
– Market sources reported, citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute, that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 2.6 million barrels in the week ending January 10. They added that gasoline stocks rose by 5.4 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 4.88 million barrels.
U.S. crude oil inventories fell by about 1 million barrels in the week to Jan. 10, a Reuters poll showed, ahead of a report from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, due at 10:30 a.m. ET (1530 GMT) on Wednesday.
-In its report, the US Energy Information Administration expects Brent crude prices to decline by 8% to an average of $74 per barrel in 2025, then further decline to $66 per barrel in 2026, while WTI crude will average $70 in 2025 and then decline to $62 next year.
-Bitcoin price is trying to achieve a recovery wave above the $93,200 area. Bitcoin price is rising and may face resistance near the $97,500 area.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2681.34
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2686.42, targeting 2692.85 and 2699.98
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2675.03. Target price 2668.59 and then 2660.75
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $76.88 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $77.25 levels, targeting $77.72 and then $78.28.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $76.57 level, targeting $76.05 and then $75.46.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.02969
Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.02848, targeting 1.02688 and then 1.02475.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.03075, targeting 1.03260 and then 1.03484.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.21970
Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.21892 level, targeting the price of 1.21606 and then 1.21384
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.22147, targeting 1.22388 and then 1.22674.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20950
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 21037, targeting 21141 then 21259
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 20881 with target price 20756 then 20649
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (December) 10:00
-From Spain Core CPI (Excluding Food and Energy) (YoY) (December) 11:00
-USA Core CPI (excluding food and energy) (MoM) (December) 16:30
-US Consumer Price Index (MoM) (December) 16:30
-From USA Consumer Price Index (YoY) (December) 16:30
-US crude oil inventory 18:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 109.2 on Wednesday, remaining near a two-year high as investors awaited the December consumer inflation report, which could influence the future direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Any upside surprise in inflation could limit the scope for the Fed to cut interest rates this year or could prompt the central bank to maintain its current stance for an extended period.
Markets currently expect only a quarter-point rate cut, most likely in the second half of the year.
Meanwhile, the dollar fell on Tuesday following a weaker-than-expected monthly producer price index report, which rose just 0.2% in December, below economists’ expectations of 0.4%.
The core producer price index also remained unchanged, contrary to expectations for a 0.3% increase.
Elsewhere, developing headlines about Trump’s tariff plans are expected to add further volatility to the dollar as his inauguration on January 20 approaches.
Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as caution prevailed ahead of a U.S. consumer inflation report that could provide more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday, after falling the previous day, as a drop in U.S. crude inventories and expectations of supply disruptions due to sanctions on Russian tankers provided support amid expectations of lower global fuel demand.
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