enDaily Analysis 14/08/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index traded around 102.6 on Wednesday after losing half a percentage point in the previous session, weighed down by a weaker-than-expected reading in U.S. producer prices that boosted bets on an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
-Gold holds near all-time high as dollar, Treasury yields
fall Annual producer inflation slowed to 2.2% in July, down from 2.7% in June and inching closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.
-Moreover, gold continues to benefit from its safe-haven appeal amid rising geopolitical tensions, with markets closely monitoring developments related to Iran’s imminent retaliatory strike on Israel and Ukraine’s incursion into Russia.
Investors are now awaiting US CPI data due later today for more insight on inflation.
Markets currently price in a 50% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Low interest rates enhance the appeal of non-interest-bearing precious metals such as gold.
Gold prices held near their July peak as the dollar and Treasury yields retreated following the latest U.S. producer price index data.
-The producer price index rose less than expected in July, boosting market hopes for a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.
Asian stocks rise, New Zealand dollar falls after New Zealand cuts interest rates
Asian stocks rose and the dollar suffered losses on Wednesday after weak U.S. producer price data raised hopes that consumer inflation was benign, sending bond yields lower.
-Brent rises due to a sharp decline in US inventories, with Brent crude trading at $81.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $77.00.
-The American Petroleum Institute data showed a decrease of 5.205 million barrels in the week ending August 13, which exceeds market expectations for a decrease of 2.0 million barrels and represents the largest decrease since the week ending June 28.
Potential risks to Middle East oil supplies continued to support prices, as markets anticipated an imminent Iranian response against Israel, following reports that Iran had rejected Western calls to refrain from retaliation.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency kept its forecast for oil demand growth at less than 1 million barrels per day for both 2024 and 2025, citing weak Chinese consumption as a factor.
Bitcoin price recovered above the $60,000 resistance area. Bitcoin is now struggling to surpass the $61,200 and $61,500 resistance levels.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2465.35
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2467.14, targeting 2473.57 and 2480.70
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2455.76, targeting 2449.31 and then 2443.08
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $77.34 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $77.72 levels, targeting $78.19 and then $78.75.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $77.04 level, targeting $76.52 and then $75.94.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.09918
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.10038, targeting 1.10223 and then 1.10447
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.09811, targeting 1.09651 and then 1.09438.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.28290
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.28352, targeting the price of 1.28494 and then 1.28694.
Alternative scenario: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.28136, targeting 1.27994 and then 1.27816
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19115
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 19189 with a target price of 19292 then 19411
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 19032 with target price 18908 then 18801
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From Europe GDP (YoY) (Q2) 12:00
-From USA Core CPI (Excluding Food and Energy) (MoM) (July) 15:30
-From USA CPI (MoM) (July) 15:30
-From USA CPI (YoY) (July) 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index traded around 102.6 on Wednesday after losing half a percentage point in the previous session, weighed down by a weaker-than-expected reading in U.S. producer prices that boosted bets on an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Investors are also awaiting the much-anticipated July CPI report on Wednesday for confirmation that price growth has continued to slow.
U.S. producer prices rose 0.1% from the previous month in July, data showed on Tuesday, less than expectations for a 0.2% increase, while core producer prices were unexpectedly flat.
Markets now see a greater chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September, with more than 100 basis points of total easing expected this year.
The dollar suffered losses against most major currencies and continued to weaken against the Australian dollar amid a rise in risk assets.
Gold fell to around $2,460 an ounce on Wednesday but remained relatively close to record highs, as fresh evidence of falling U.S. inflation bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further in September.
Brent crude futures rose to around $81.2 a barrel on Wednesday, reversing losses from the previous session, driven by a big draw in U.S. crude inventories.
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