enDaily Analysis 13/02/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index continued its recent decline, remaining below 108 on Thursday, despite a better-than-expected US CPI report.
Gold rises on trade war fears; focus on important US data
Gold hits record high of $2,942.70 on Tuesday
Trump says he will sign reciprocal tariff order soon
The U.S. consumer price index rose in January at the fastest pace in nearly a year and a half.
US Producer Price Index data is due at 16:30 Mecca time.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the economy is in good shape and the bank is in no rush to cut interest rates further, but is prepared to do so if inflation falls or the labor market weakens.
Trump said he would impose reciprocal tariffs starting Wednesday evening on any country that imposes tariffs on American imports, a move that raises fears of a wider global trade war and threatens to accelerate inflation in the United States.
“Gold continues to act as a key diversifier amid trade uncertainty, as market participants seek to mitigate portfolio volatility,” said IG Market Strategist Yip Jun Rong.
Gold prices fell more than 1 percent on Wednesday after data showed U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in January, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s message that it is in no rush to resume cutting interest rates.
But prices recovered as uncertainty over the trade war continued to boost the yellow metal as a safe haven.
“Markets are largely ignoring the higher-than-expected CPI reading. The upcoming PPI data may have a more muted effect on sentiment, given that interest rate expectations have already adjusted to a higher interest rate environment for longer,” Yip said.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told the House Financial Services Committee that the central bank’s battle with rising prices is not over and that any further interest rate cuts should wait until it is clear that inflation will return to its 2% target.
Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, but rising interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding gold.
Oil falls as Ukraine peace deal likely to ease supply disruptions, Brent trades at $74.00, WTI at $70.00
Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell more than 2 percent on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed a desire for peace in separate phone calls with him, and Trump ordered top U.S. officials to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine.
Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer, and sanctions on its crude exports as a result of its invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago have supported high prices.
In a note on Thursday, analysts at ANZ Bank said oil prices fell on news of potential peace talks due to “optimism that risks to crude oil supplies will ease,” pointing to U.S. and European Union sanctions that are driving down Russian production.
“Signs of tighter supply have pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks. US sanctions on Russian oil companies and ships are said to have exacerbated the situation,” they said.
The market was also affected by a rise in crude oil inventories in the United States, the world’s largest consumer of crude. Data from the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that US crude inventories rose more than expected last week.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels to 427.9 million barrels in the week to Feb. 7, exceeding analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 3 million-barrel increase.
“This latest decline in crude oil futures comes after a period of consecutive inventory builds,” said Darren Lim, commodity strategist at Philip Nova.
“Geopolitical developments, such as proposals to end the conflict in Ukraine, could put crude oil prices under further pressure.”
-Bitcoin price is holding above the $95,000 support area. Bitcoin price must hold above the $100,000 level to start a new rally in the near term.
-Bitcoin price is holding above the $96,200 support area. Bitcoin is showing some positive signs and may try to rise above $99,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2913.41
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2923.53, targeting 2929.96 and 2937.09
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2912.15. Target price 2905.70 and then 2897.87
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $70.66 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $71.02 levels, targeting $71.49 and then $72.05.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking $70.34 with a target price of $69.82 then $69.24
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.04351
Scenario 1: Buy the Euro Dollar by breaking 1.04451, targeting 1.04635 and then 1.04860.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.04223, targeting 1.04064 and then 1.03851.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: .1.24956
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.25069, targeting the price of 1.25309 and then 1.25596.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD with a break and stability with a close below 1.24768, targeting 1.24528 and then 1.24306
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21915
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21984 with a target price of 22088 then 22206
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and stability with a close below 21827 with a target price of 21703 then 21596
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From UK GDP (MoM) (Dec) 10:00
-From UK GDP (YoY) (Q4) 10:00
-From UK GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 10:30
-From Germany German CPI (MoM) (Jan) 10:00
-From USA Unemployment Claims Rate 16:30
-From USA Producer Price Index (YoY) (Jan) 16:30
-From USA Producer Price Index (MoM) (Jan) 16:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index extended its recent decline, remaining below the 108 level on Thursday, despite a better-than-expected US CPI report.
Data released on Wednesday showed that annual headline and core inflation accelerated to 3% and 3.3% respectively, beating expectations of 2.9% and 3.1%.
On a monthly basis, headline and core inflation exceeded expectations, rising by 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.
The figures reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy on interest rates, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicating to Congress that the central bank is in no rush to ease policy.
As a result, markets have adjusted their expectations, now expecting only a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed this year.
Traders are now focusing on Thursday’s weekly jobless claims and producer inflation data to further determine the market’s direction.
Gold prices rose on Thursday as markets closely monitored developments in US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, which could escalate a global trade war, while investors awaited crucial US data due later in the day.
Oil prices fell on Thursday amid expectations that a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia will end sanctions that have disrupted supply flows, while crude inventories in the United States, the world’s largest crude producer, rose.
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