enDaily Analysis 13/01/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
Dollar holds steady at 2-year high on strong jobs data
The dollar index held steady around 109.6 on Monday after hitting a two-year high in the previous session, supported by a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report that prompted markets to scale back bets on more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
Gold steady amid Trump policy uncertainty, upbeat US data
-US CPI data is due later in the week.
Weaker US data will provide much-needed catalyst
The market has priced in only one rate cut this year.
Friday’s positive jobs report reinforced the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance toward further monetary policy easing this year amid growing concerns that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s pledges to impose or significantly increase import tariffs could stoke inflation.
-Traders have now fully priced in that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its meeting later this month and expect only one rate cut this year, which will be in June. (FEDWATCH)
Bullion is used as a hedge against inflation, although higher interest rates reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding assets.
President-elect Donald Trump is set to take office on January 20, and his proposed tariffs could spark trade wars and inflation, creating a favorable environment for the precious metal, which is widely seen as a hedge against inflation.
However, a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report on Friday pointed to an improving labor market and a strong economy, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve may move forward with a slower pace of interest rate cuts this year.
This could put downward pressure on gold, as higher interest rates reduce the attractiveness of holding non-yielding assets.
Investors are now closely watching US CPI inflation data due later this week, which could provide further insights into the direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Stocks fell broadly in Asia on Monday while the dollar hit a 14-month high following a surprisingly strong payrolls report that sent bond yields higher and tested lofty stock valuations as earnings season gets underway.
Oil rises to highest level in more than three months amid supply risks, with Brent crude trading at $81.00 and WTI at $77.00.
Oil jumps as new US sanctions limit Russian supplies to China, India
The United States on Friday imposed some of the toughest sanctions yet against the Russian oil industry, targeting two major exporters, more than 180 ships and more than 150 tankers.
These restrictions are expected to severely impact Russia’s ability to supply oil to key markets such as China and India, forcing these countries to look for alternatives in the Middle East, Africa and the Americas.
Adding to the bullish sentiment, the latest US jobs report confirmed the strength of the economy, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will take a more conservative approach to easing monetary policy this year.
Crude oil prices have also been supported in recent weeks by winter energy demand, lower U.S. inventories and speculation about policies under the incoming administration of President-elect Trump.
Traders and analysts said Russian oil exports would be hit hard by the new sanctions, prompting China and India, the world’s largest and third-largest oil importers respectively, to seek more crude from the Middle East, Africa and the Americas, boosting prices and shipping costs.
“Friday’s announcement reinforces our view that the risks to our $70-$85/bbl Brent price forecast are biased to the upside in the near term,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
“We estimate that the ships targeted by the new sanctions transported 1.7 million barrels per day of oil in 2024, or 25% of Russia’s exports, the vast majority of which is crude oil.”
Bitcoin price continued its losses and traded below the $93,500 level. Bitcoin is trying to correct its gains and may face difficulty in recovering above the $95,000 level.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2689.79
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2693.34, targeting 2699.77 and 2706.90
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2682.13. Target price 2675.51 and then 2667.68
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $77.21 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $77.39 levels, targeting $77.86 and then $78.43.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $76.71 level, targeting $76.19 and then $75.61
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.02180
Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD by breaking 1.02064, targeting 1.01904 and then 1.01691.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.02291, targeting 1.02475 and then 1.02700.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.21492
Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the 1.21371 level, targeting the price of 1.21131 and then 1.20909
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.21672, targeting 1.21912 and then 1.22199.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20901
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 20986 with a target price of 21089 then 21208
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 20829 with a target price of 20705 then 20598
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From Japan, a holiday is closed on the occasion of – Respect for the Aged Day
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 109.6 on Monday after hitting a two-year high in the previous session, supported by a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report that prompted markets to scale back bets on more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
December jobs data showed an unexpected gain of 256,000 jobs, well above expectations for a gain of 160,000.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, while wage growth slowed to an expected 0.3%.
Traders now expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meetings this month and in March.
Market pricing also suggests only a quarter-point rate cut for the full year, a sharp drop from the 50 basis points expected at the start of January.
Looking ahead, investors are focusing on U.S. inflation data this week and fresh comments from Federal Reserve officials for further clues on the central bank’s policy path.
Gold held steady around $2,680 an ounce on Monday, supported by safe-haven demand amid uncertainty surrounding the policies of the next U.S. administration.
Oil prices extended gains for a third straight session on Monday, with Brent crude rising above $81 a barrel to its highest in more than four months, as broader U.S. sanctions are expected to hit Russian crude exports to major buyers China and India.
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