Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

Dollar holds gains after inflation data

The dollar index held steady around 106.5 on Thursday after rising for four straight sessions even as the latest U.S. consumer inflation data bolstered bets on an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.

Gold retreats after three-day rally

The November report showed headline inflation rose as expected, while core inflation remained unchanged.

This has prompted traders to increase their bets on another rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with fed funds futures indicating a 98% chance of a 25 basis point cut.

Gold usually benefits from this move because it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

However, concerns about continued inflation in the coming year remained, with other key core inflation measures remaining elevated.

Gold also found support from additional easing measures taken by major central banks, including the Bank of Canada, as the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank are expected to continue their easing cycles.

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China resumed gold purchases after a six-month hiatus and pledged to pursue a more accommodative monetary policy next year.

Gold rises on prospects of Fed rate cut

Gold prices rose in early Asian trading on continued expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. The move came after the US consumer price index rose 2.7% year-on-year in November,

-In line with expectations. “Lower borrowing costs are positive for gold because the metal does not pay interest,” says Ewa Manthey of ING in a research report. ING expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points next week,

-Although the outlook after that is less clear, according to the commodity strategist. ING expects gold to average $2,760 an ounce in 2025.

Asian stocks rose on Thursday, tracking a tech-led rally on Wall Street overnight after an unexpected U.S. consumer price inflation reading boosted bets for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.

Oil continues its gains, with Brent crude trading at $73.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $69.00.

OPEC cuts 2025 demand growth forecast Wednesday

EU sanctions package targets ‘shadow fleet’ of ships carrying Russian oil

-U.S. gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected last week.

These concerns have been heightened by recent US statements indicating tighter restrictions on Russian and Iranian activities, raising concerns about supplies in the wake of the 15th package of sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russian oil.

However, gains were limited by signs of weak demand.

The latest data from the US Energy Information Administration revealed that gasoline and distillate inventories rose to higher-than-expected levels, indicating a decline in domestic fuel consumption.

OPEC also weighed on market sentiment by lowering its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 for the fifth month in a row, citing weak Chinese demand and increased supplies from outside OPEC+.

However, traders remained optimistic, expecting that China’s loose monetary policy next year and a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could spur energy demand.

-Bitcoin price remained supported above the $95,500 area. Bitcoin price rose more than 5% and is now trading above the $100.00 resistance area.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2719.69

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2723.52, targeting 2729.95 and then 2737.08

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2712.14 with a target price of 2705.69 and 2697.85

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $70.05 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $70.26 levels, targeting $70.73 and then $71.29.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking $69.58 with a target price of $69.19 then $68.47

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.05287

Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.05149, targeting 1.04956 and then 1.04743

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.05343, targeting 1.05528 and then 1.05752.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27566

Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.27640 level, targeting the price of 1.27400 and then 1.27178

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.27940, targeting 1.28181 and then 1.28468

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 21763

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 21835, targeting 21939 then 22057

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21678 with target price 21554 then 21447

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q4) 11:30

-From Europe: ECB interest rate decision (December) 16:15

-From the United States of America, unemployment claims rates are 16:30.

-From USA Producer Price Index (MoM) (November) 16:30

-From USA Producer Price Index (YoY) (November) 16:30

From Canada, the interest rate decision issued by the Bank of Canada 17:45

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady around 106.5 on Thursday after rising for four straight sessions even as the latest U.S. consumer inflation data bolstered bets on an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.

The Consumer Price Index report showed that headline and core inflation rates were in line with expectations in November, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to move forward with interest rate cuts.

Markets are now pricing in a near 100% chance of the Fed cutting by another 25 basis points next week.

Investors are also looking to producer price inflation data on Thursday for further guidance.

Meanwhile, the dollar found support from recent weakness in the euro and yuan amid expectations of dovish monetary policy in the eurozone and China.

However, the US dollar lost some ground against the Australian dollar after strong Australian jobs data.

Gold eased toward $2,700 an ounce on Wednesday, taking a breather after a three-day rally as investors continued to digest the latest U.S. inflation data.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose above $70 a barrel on Thursday, after gaining more than 2% in the previous session, driven by concerns about a global supply shortage of crude.