enDaily Analysis 12/03/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The US dollar index held steady around 103.5 on Wednesday, remaining near a five-month low, as the strength of the euro weighed on the US currency.
Gold stabilizes as markets await inflation data
*: Analysts say gold is in consolidation mode ahead of inflation data.
US CPI data is due later today.
Kyiv said it would accept a 30-day ceasefire proposal.
“Gold is operating in consolidation mode ahead of the next batch of US inflation data,” said Tim Waterer, senior market analyst at KCM Trade.
Investors are awaiting US consumer price index data due later today to assess the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates next year.
If rising price pressures force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, gold may lose its appeal as a non-yielding asset.
US President Donald Trump’s tariffs are widely expected to fuel inflation and economic uncertainty, pushing gold to a record high of $2,956.15 on February 24.
I expect gold to remain a preferred asset as investors remain concerned about tariff wars and slowing growth. Therefore, gold’s trend remains upward as the tariff drama continues, according to Waterer.
Trump defended his tariff policies on Tuesday during a meeting with CEOs of major U.S. companies, including several whose market value has fallen in recent days as consumer and investor sentiment has deteriorated due to fears of recession and inflation.
Trump on Tuesday backed down from his pledge to double tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada to 50%, hours after announcing the higher tariffs.
Meanwhile, the United States agreed to resume military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after Kyiv said it would accept a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in its conflict with Russia.
Oil prices rise as the dollar weakens, but tariff concerns limit gains, with Brent crude trading at $69.00 and WTI at $66.00.
Despite the weak economic outlook, oil prices have remained positive, according to Daniel Hynes, chief commodity strategist at ANZ Bank. He added, “This is a sign that demand for crude oil remains strong in the near term.”
Oil prices rose as
the
dollar fell against a basket of major currencies, falling 0.5% to a 2025 low on Tuesday, making crude less expensive for buyers holding other currencies.
“The dollar’s decline counters the bearish bias caused by the global economic slowdown, although this appears to be short-lived,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Philip Nova.
US stocks, which also influence the oil market, fell again on Tuesday, adding to the biggest sell-off in months, as investors worried about higher import tariffs and deteriorating consumer sentiment.
“Overall sentiment remains fragile despite a slight rebound in today’s session,” said Yip Junrong, market strategist at IG.
“For now, oil market sentiment is likely to remain subdued, with continued uncertainty surrounding tariff developments and ongoing concerns about US growth risks,” Yip added.
US President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies have shaken global markets. He imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, two major oil suppliers, but then postponed their implementation. He also raised tariffs on China, prompting retaliatory measures.
Trump said over the weekend that there would likely be a “transition period” and refused to rule out a US recession.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday that U.S. crude oil production is on track to reach a record high this year, higher than previously estimated, averaging 13.61 million barrels per day.
Investors are awaiting US inflation data due on Wednesday for clues on the path of interest rates. They are also closely monitoring OPEC+ plans. The producer group has announced plans to increase production in April.
Bitcoin price began a new decline below $86,000. Bitcoin is retracing its losses and may face challenges at $84,000 and $85,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2913.86
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 2921.75, targeting 2930.78 and 2938.94.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a breakout and hold below 2908.88, targeting 2901.87 and then 2894.72.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $66.00 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing below $65.95, targeting $65.59 and then $65.16.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil after breaking the $66.50 level, targeting $66.86 and then $67.21.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08961
First scenario: Buy the EUR/USD after breaking 1.09109, targeting 1.09288 and then 1.09495.
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle close below 1.08857, targeting 1.08683 and then 1.08481.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.29214
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and stability above 1.29391, targeting 1.29567 and then 1.29766.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.29211, targeting 1.28900 and then 1.28710.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19453
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 19414, targeting a price of 19309 then 19201
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 19571 with a target price of 19690 then 19798
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From the United States of America Core Consumer Price Index (excluding food and energy) (monthly) (February) 15:30
-From the United States of America Consumer Price Index (monthly) (February) 15:30
-From the United States of America Consumer Price Index (annual) (February) 15:30
-From the United States of America US Crude Oil Inventories 16:30
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision 16:45
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index held steady around 103.5 on Wednesday, remaining near a five-month low, as the strength of the euro weighed on the greenback.
The euro rose amid growing optimism about a ceasefire in Ukraine, after Kyiv indicated its acceptance of a US-brokered proposal, prompting Washington to restore military aid and intelligence sharing.
The dollar also faced pressure due to uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and fears of a recession.
Trump’s tariffs are expected to increase inflation, which could prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates further while dampening economic growth.
Investors are now awaiting the latest US consumer inflation report for further insight into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
While the dollar remained near multi-month lows against the euro, pound, and yen, it held steady against the Australian and New Zealand dollars amid broader risk aversion.
Gold steadied on Wednesday ahead of key US inflation data that could help gauge the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook amid trade tensions and economic slowdown fears, while attention also focused on a potential ceasefire agreement in Ukraine.
Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar, but growing concerns about a slowing US economy and the impact of tariffs on global economic growth limited gains.
Risk Disclaimer
Any information/articles/materials/content provided by WRPRO or displayed on its website is intended to be used solely for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a consultation on how the client should trade.
Although WRPRO has taken care to ensure that the content of such information is accurate, - it cannot be held responsible for any omission/error/miscalculation and cannot guarantee the accuracy of any material or any information contained herein.
Therefore, any reliance you place on such material is strictly at your own risk. Please note that the responsibility for using or relying on such material rests with the client and WRPRO accepts no liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Risk Warning: FX/CFDs are complex instruments and carry a high risk of losing money quickly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how FX/CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
You should make sure that, depending on your country of residence, you are allowed to trade with WRPRO products. Please ensure that you are familiar with the company’s risk disclosure.
