enDaily Analysis 12/02/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 108 on Wednesday after retreating in the previous session, as caution prevailed ahead of a critical inflation reading that could provide additional guidance on the direction of interest rates.
Gold falls as traders await US inflation data
Mexico, Canada and the European Union on Tuesday condemned Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports next month, raising fears of a trade war as investors brace for more tariff announcements.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the economy is in good shape and the bank is in no rush to cut interest rates further, but is prepared to do so if inflation falls or the labor market weakens.
Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but rising interest rates are weakening the appeal of non-yielding assets.
Investors are now awaiting US CPI data due at 1330 GMT and PPI data on Thursday.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to testify before Congress later today.
Elsewhere, gold rental rates in India have doubled in a month to a record high, tracking the overseas market, where prices have jumped due to a supply crunch as global banks shift the precious metal to the United States, industry officials told Reuters.
Oil prices fell after a report of a rise in US crude inventories, with Brent crude trading at $76.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $72.00.
US crude inventories rise 9.4 million barrels – API data
US tariffs could impact global economic growth and energy demand
Refining margins are stronger than in January, London Stock Exchange data showed.
The declines ended a three-day winning streak for prices, with Brent crude rising 3.6%, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.7%.
Crude oil inventories in the United States, the world’s largest oil producer and consumer, rose by 9.4 million barrels in the week to Feb. 7, according to sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday.
The American Petroleum Institute data showed that gasoline stocks fell by 2.51 million barrels, and distillate stocks fell by 590,000 barrels.
The Energy Information Administration data is due out later Wednesday.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its estimate for U.S. crude production while leaving its demand forecast unchanged. The agency now expects U.S. crude oil production to average 13.59 million barrels per day in 2025, up from its previous estimate of 13.55 million barrels per day.
Prices also fell on concerns that the United States’ imposition or threat of multiple tariffs could curb global economic growth and energy demand.
But stronger refining margins have limited overall price losses. Singapore’s complex refining margins have recouped their losses in January, averaging $3 a barrel or more last week, pricing data from the Singapore Exchange showed.
Bitcoin price is holding above the support area at $95,000. Bitcoin is struggling and may extend its losses if it stays below the $100,000 level.
-Bitcoin price is holding above the $96,200 support area. Bitcoin is showing some positive signs and may try to rise above $99,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2886.70
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2893.12, targeting 2899.55 and 2906.68
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2881.74. Targeting 2875.29 and then 2867.46
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $72.76 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $73.05 levels, targeting $73.52 and then $74.08.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking $72.37 with a target price of $71.85 then $71.27
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.03578
First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.02944, targeting 1.03686 and then 1.04095.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.03459, targeting 1.03299 and then 1.03086.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: .1.24451
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.24607, targeting the price of 1.24848 and then 1.25134
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.24307, targeting 1.24066 and then 1.23844
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21775
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21865 with a target price of 21967 then 22085
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21707 with target price 21582 then 21475
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-US Core CPI (excluding food and energy) (MoM) (January) 16:30
-US Consumer Price Index (MoM) (January) 16:30 -US
-Consumer Price Index (YoY) (January) 16:30 -Federal
-Reserve Chairman Powell’s Testimony 18:00
-US Crude Oil Inventories 18:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 108 on Wednesday after retreating in the previous session, as caution prevailed ahead of a critical inflation reading that could provide additional guidance on the direction of interest rates.
The January CPI report is expected to show a slight acceleration in core inflation in the US to 0.3% from 0.2% on a monthly basis, while the annual rate is expected to slow slightly to 3.1% from 3.2%.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in remarks before Congress, confirmed that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates, stressing the strength of the economy and ongoing inflation.
He warned that moving too quickly to ease monetary policy could hamper inflation, while moving too slowly could stifle economic growth.
On the trade front, markets continued to assess the impact of President Donald Trump’s recent tariff escalation.
Gold prices fell on Wednesday, after hitting an all-time high in the previous session on fears of a global trade war sparked by new tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, as the market’s focus shifted to a key U.S. inflation report.
Oil prices fell on Wednesday after an industry report showed a build in U.S. crude inventories and tariff concerns weighed on sentiment, although stronger refining margins limited the market’s decline.
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