enDaily Analysis 11/04/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The US dollar index fell to around 100 on Friday, approaching a three-year low, as economic concerns and declining confidence in US assets continued to pressure the currency.
Bullion prices have risen by about 6% so far this week.
$3,500 is the next number people will be looking at –
US consumer prices fell unexpectedly in March.
The rapid weakening of the US dollar appears to be the main driver of gold’s current rally. This appears to reflect an ongoing outflow from US dollar-denominated assets, with stocks and bonds falling sharply amid uncertainty over tariff policy, according to Ilya Spivak, head of global economics at Taste Life.
Major stock indexes also fell after US President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, but suspended previously announced tariffs on dozens of countries for 90 days.
China is following Trump’s lead in increasing tariffs, raising concerns that Beijing could impose tariffs on the United States beyond the current 84%.
“$3,500 is the number we should expect for the next round,” said Kyle Rodda, a financial market analyst at Capital.com. “I don’t think we’ll reach that level immediately or without obstacles along the way.”
In addition to tariffs, demand from central banks, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Europe, and increased inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have all contributed to the yellow metal’s rise this year.
Data showed that US consumer prices fell unexpectedly in March, but inflation risks are on the rise.
Traders are now betting that the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates in June, possibly cutting them by a full percentage point by the end of 2025.
Oil prices are heading for a second week of declines as demand slows due to the US-China trade war, with Brent crude trading at $63.00 and WTI at $60.00.
Brent crude is expected to fall 3.2% this week, while West Texas Intermediate crude is expected to fall 2.9%. Both benchmarks fell 11% the previous week.
A prolonged dispute between the world’s two largest economies is likely to reduce global trade volumes, disrupt trade routes, and ultimately negatively impact global economic growth.
“We expect prices to remain under pressure as investors assess the ongoing trade negotiations and rising tensions between Washington and Beijing,” analysts at BMI said in a note on Friday.
Concerns about a global economic slowdown are also putting pressure on oil prices, Daniel Hynes, chief commodity strategist at ANZ Bank, said in a note.
Heinz said the bank expects oil consumption to fall by 1% if global economic growth falls below 3%.
US President Donald Trump raised tariffs on China to 145% on Thursday, even after announcing the suspension of hefty tariffs on dozens of trading partners earlier this week. China, in turn, announced additional import duties on US goods.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday lowered its forecast for global economic growth and warned that tariffs could severely impact oil prices. It also lowered its forecast for U.S. and global oil demand this year and next.
Analysts at BMI said the OPEC+ meeting on May 5 could be crucial, indicating a willingness to intervene to support market stability.
Analysts said that “announcement of additional supply growth at the next meeting is likely to serve as a catalyst for renewed selling.”
Bitcoin price began a fresh rally above $80,000. It is now correcting its gains and may struggle to hold above the $79,500 support level.
Bitcoin price began a recovery wave from $81,200. Bitcoin is attempting to recoup its losses and is facing difficulties at the $83,500 resistance level.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3204.58
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3206.58, targeting 3215.61 and 3223.77.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3193.71, targeting 3186.70 and then 3179.55.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $60.29 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing above $60.57, targeting $60.95 and then $61.30.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking the $60.04 level, targeting $59.69 and then $59.25.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.13380
First scenario: Buy EUR/USD after breaking 1.13424, targeting 1.13604 and then 1.13811.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle close below 1.12807, targeting 1.12632 and then 1.12430.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.30444
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.30567, targeting 1.30743 and then 1.30942.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.30275, targeting 1.30077 and then 1.29887.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18604
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq after a breakout and close above 18,736, targeting 18,856 and then 18,963.
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq after a break and close below 18,475, targeting 18,475 and then 18,367.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From the United States of America, Producer Price Index (YoY) (March) 15:30
From the United States of America, Producer Price Index (MoM) (March) 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index fell to around 100 on Friday, approaching a three-year low, as economic concerns and declining confidence in US assets continued to pressure the currency.
Investors remain wary of the potential repercussions of President Trump’s tariff policies, which have raised concerns about slowing economic growth despite a 90-day grace period intended to allow for trade negotiations.
Trump’s move to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 145% has escalated the trade war with Beijing, further damaging sentiment.
Meanwhile, the European Union has decided to suspend the implementation of countermeasures for 90 days in an attempt to continue talks.
Adding to pressure on the dollar, the US core consumer price index rose by only 2.8% year-on-year—the slowest pace since March 2021—which reinforced expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve approach.
The US dollar fell broadly, with the biggest losses against the euro, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc.
Gold prices broke above $3,200 an ounce for the first time on Friday, supported by a weaker dollar and an escalating trade war that prompted investors to rush to safe-haven assets.
Oil prices were little changed on Friday and were headed for a second straight week of declines amid concerns that a prolonged trade war between the United States and China will curb economic growth and crush crude oil consumption.
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