enDaily Analysis 11/03/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held its recent decline at around 103.7 on Tuesday, hovering near a four-month low as concerns grew that Trump’s trade policies and government shake-ups could push the U.S. economy into recession.
Gold rises as dollar, Treasury yields fall; US data awaited
*: Analysts say the overall uptrend in gold remains intact.
Dollar hovers near four-month low
US CPI data will be released on Wednesday.
“The US dollar and Treasury yields have fallen, which is helping gold find some support… The overall uptrend remains intact, and the path of least resistance is in favour of the upside,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global economics at Tastlef.
“Prices have been consolidating in a range between about 2,830 and 2,960 over the past four weeks… We would need to see a convincing break above or below these boundaries to conclude that some kind of permanent directional move is resuming.”
US President Donald Trump, in an interview with Fox News on Sunday, declined to predict whether the tariffs he imposed would lead to a recession in the United States, sending global stocks lower.
Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada on Tuesday, along with new duties on Chinese goods, but later exempted many Mexican and Canadian imports from those duties for a month, creating uncertainty in markets and raising concerns about U.S. inflation and slowing growth.
Investors are now awaiting US consumer price index data due on Wednesday to analyze the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates.
Gold is seen as a hedge against political risk and inflation, but if higher prices force the Fed to keep interest rates high, the non-yielding asset could lose its appeal.
Oil prices fall on tariff concerns, slowdown fears, Brent crude trades at $69.00, WTI at $65.00
US President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies have roiled markets around the world, with Trump imposing and then delaying tariffs on his country’s biggest oil suppliers, Canada and Mexico, while raising tariffs on Chinese goods. China and Canada have responded with tariffs.
Trump said over the weekend that a “transition period” for the economy was possible but declined to predict whether the United States might face a recession amid stock market concerns about his tariff actions.
“Trump’s comments sparked a sell-off as investors began to price in the risk of weaker demand growth,” said Daniel Hynes, chief commodity strategist at ANZ Bank.
Stocks, which crude oil prices typically track, fell on Monday, with all three major U.S. indexes suffering sharp declines.
The S&P 500
posted its biggest daily drop since Dec. 18, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 4.0%, its biggest daily decline since September 2022.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that Trump will not ease pressure on tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China.
On the supply front, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that the OPEC+ group had agreed to start increasing oil production from April, but that it might reverse the decision later if there were imbalances in the market.
Despite the market noise, Brent at around $70 a barrel is very strong support and oil prices could look to make a technical recovery at current levels, said Suvro Sarkar, head of energy sector at DBS Bank, adding that OPEC+ supply response will remain flexible depending on market conditions.
“If oil prices fall below $70 per barrel for a prolonged period, we think production increases could be halted. OPEC+ will also be closely watching Trump’s policies towards Iran and Venezuela,” he said.
“The US has already restored Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela, and it remains to be seen whether sanctions on Iran will tighten. In the meantime, however, concerns about global growth will dominate amid political uncertainty and trade wars.”
-Bitcoin price started to decline from the $90k area. Bitcoin price is back below $82500 and may continue to decline below $78k.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2901.34
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2905.10, targeting 2914.13 and 2922.29
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2892.23. Target price 2885.22 and then 2878.08
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $65.75 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below $65.40 levels, targeting $65.04 and then $64.61
Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $65.94 level, targeting $66.30 and then $66.65.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08600
First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.08735, targeting 1.08915 and then 1.09121.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.0848, targeting 1.08309 and then 1.08107.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.28929
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.29004, targeting the price of 1.29181 and then 1.29380.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD with a break and stability with a close below 1.28713, targeting 1.28514 and then 1.28324
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19474
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 19414, targeting a price of 19309 then 19201
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 19571 with a target price of 19690 then 19798
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From USA Job Opportunities (JOLTS) (January) 17:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held its recent lows at around 103.7 on Tuesday, hovering near four-month lows as concerns grew that Trump’s trade policies and government shake-ups could push the U.S. economy into recession.
On Sunday, President Donald Trump refused to rule out a recession, instead describing the current economic phase as a “transition period.” Investors are now closely watching upcoming CPI and PPI data for fresh insights on inflation ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where the Fed will unveil updated economic forecasts.
The dollar weakened significantly against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc as rising risk aversion drove demand for safe-haven currencies.
Meanwhile, the euro and the pound gained amid expectations of increased defence spending in Europe.
Gold prices rose on Tuesday as the dollar and Treasury yields weakened, while investors awaited inflation data to assess the Federal Reserve’s policy path amid rising trade tensions and concerns about a slowing economy.
Oil prices fell for a second day in a row on Tuesday, as concerns mounted about a possible recession in the United States, the impact of tariffs on global growth, and as OPEC+ moved to increase supplies.
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