Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index held onto its recent gains, remaining above 108.3 on Tuesday, after President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports “without exceptions or exemptions.” Trump also unveiled plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on other countries in the coming days.

-Trump’s new tariffs push gold to record highs

Trump raises tariffs on steel and aluminum imports

Gold hits record high of $2,942.70 an ounce

Gold approaches $3,000 per ounce barrier

Trump sharply raised tariffs on steel and aluminum imports on Monday to 25% “without exceptions or exemptions” in a move to help struggling industries. However, the tariff hikes have raised the risk of a multi-front trade war.

The safe-haven metal hit its eighth-highest level so far in 2025 on Trump’s tariffs, which have fueled uncertainty over global growth, trade war fears and inflationary pressures.

“The threat of a global trade war is putting pressure on physical bullion trading and pushing financial markets to take exposure to gold as part of what can loosely be described as a de-dollarization theme,” said Kyle Rodda, a financial markets analyst at Capital.com.

“Buyers appear to be somewhat price-sensitive as traders do what they can to ship gold to the US to avoid any potential tariffs on the metal.”

Tariffs could fuel inflation in the US, as investors await US CPI and PPI data this week.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Oil rises on supply concerns, Trump tariffs cap gains; Brent trades at $76.00, WTI at $72.00

-Brent and WTI crude rose about 0.3% after rising about 2% in the previous session

Russian oil output falls to 9 million barrels – ANZ note

Trump imposes 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports

Reuters poll: Fed to wait until next quarter before cutting rates

The rebound was driven by signs of tightening supplies, analysts at ANZ Bank said in a research note.

“Russian oil production fell below its OPEC+ quota in January, easing concerns about oversupply. Output fell to 8.962 million barrels per day, about 16,000 barrels per day below the levels agreed under the production agreement,” they wrote.

Analysts added that fears of further unrest were heightened after Politico reported on Monday that European nations were planning to seize Russia’s shadow fleet.

Russian oil shipments to China and India, the world’s biggest crude importers, have been severely disrupted by U.S. sanctions imposed last month targeting tankers, producers and insurers.

US sanctions on networks that transport Iranian oil to China are adding to supply concerns after President Donald Trump reimposed “maximum pressure” on Iranian oil exports last week.

-Bitcoin price is holding above the $96,200 support area. Bitcoin is showing some positive signs and may try to rise above $99,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2923.56

First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2930.45, targeting 2936.88 and 2944.01

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2919.06. Target price 2912.62 and then 2904.78

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $72.39 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $72.59 levels, targeting $73.06 and then $73.63.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $71.92 level, targeting $71.39 and then $70.81

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.03087

Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.02944, targeting 1.02784 and then 1.02571

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.03171, targeting 1.03355 and then 1.03580.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: .1.23647

Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.23746, targeting the price of 1.24986 and then 1.24273

Alternative scenario: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.23445, targeting 1.23205 and then 1.22983

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 21774

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21864 with a target price of 21967 then 22085

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21707 with target price 21582 then 21475

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s Testimony

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held onto its recent gains, remaining above the 108.3 level on Tuesday, after President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports “without exceptions or exemptions.” Trump also unveiled plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on other countries in the coming days.

The move has raised concerns about a global trade war that could lead to higher inflation, potentially limiting the Fed’s ability to cut interest rates further.

Traders are also preparing for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, hoping for more clarity on the future path of interest rates.

In addition, the latest consumer inflation report is due on Wednesday, followed by producer inflation data on Thursday.

While the dollar remained strong against most currencies, it struggled against the Australian dollar, which found support from higher commodity prices.

Gold prices rose to a record high on Tuesday, as investors rushed to safe-haven assets after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, raising concerns about inflation and an escalating trade war.

Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday after a report showed Russian oil production fell short of its quota and on concerns of further supply disruptions, but gains were capped by concerns that rising tariffs could dampen global economic growth.