enDaily Analysis 10/02/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index rose above 108.3 on Monday, extending gains for a third straight session as fresh tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump stoked concerns about inflation, potentially limiting the scope for interest rate cuts.
Gold hovers near all-time high as tariff threats boost safe-haven demand
Fed officials see healthy job market, no rush to cut rates
Gold hit a record high of $2,886.62 on Friday.
Gold may rise to $2900-2910 in the near term –
Trump said on Sunday he would announce new 25% tariffs on Monday on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States, which would be added to existing metal tariffs in another major escalation of his trade policy overhaul.
Trump also said he would announce reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday, taking effect almost immediately, applying to all countries and matching each country’s tariff rates.
“Global trade tensions are still very much in play and could push gold prices to $2,900-$2,910 in the near term,” said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA.
“I don’t see much chance of a correction yet at this point, unless we start seeing a very strong push for the US dollar.”
Gold is considered a safe investment during economic and financial turmoil, but high interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets.
“The possibility of gold also being hit by the tit-for-tat tariffs is causing turmoil in the physical market,” said Daniel Hynes, chief commodity strategist at ANZ Bank.
U.S. Federal Reserve officials said on Friday the U.S. labor market is strong and noted uncertainty over how Trump’s policies will affect economic growth and high inflation, underscoring their cautious approach to cutting interest rates.
Oil rises as investors consider new US tariffs, with Brent trading at $75.00 and WTI at $71.00
Trump announces 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum on Monday
China’s retaliatory tariffs on some US exports begin Monday
Trump holds talks with Putin to end war in Ukraine
Trump said he would announce on Monday a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States, in another major escalation of his trade policy overhaul.
Just a week ago, the president announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, but suspended tariffs on neighboring countries the next day.
Given the temporary pullback Trump announced last week, investors appeared to be shrugging off the threat of steel and aluminum tariffs for now, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at Sydney-based IG.
“The market has realized that tariff headlines are likely to continue in the coming weeks and months,” he said, adding that there is an equal chance they will be removed or even increased at some point in the near future.
“Perhaps investors have come to the conclusion that responding negatively to every headline is not the best course of action.”
China’s retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. exports are set to take effect Monday, with no sign yet of progress between Beijing and Washington.
-Bitcoin price is consolidating above the $95,000 support area. Bitcoin is struggling and may slide further unless it closes above $98,800.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2892.94
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2897.51, targeting 2903.94 and 2911.07
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2886.13. Target price 2879.68 and then 2871.85
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $71.27 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $70.83 levels, targeting $70.31 and then $69.73.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $71.51 level, targeting $71.51 and then $72.55.
Comment: Trading within a descending price channel and below the averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.03122
First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.03276, targeting 1.03461 and then 1.03685.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.03049, targeting 1.02889 and then 1.02676.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.24056
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.24228, targeting the price of 1.24469 and then 1.24755.
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.23928, targeting 1.23687 and then 1.23465
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21686
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21767 with a target price of 21870 then 21988
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21610 with target price of 21486 then 21378
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-There is no important economic event.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index rose above 108.3 on Monday, extending gains for a third straight session as fresh tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump stoked concerns about inflation, potentially limiting the scope for interest rate cuts.
Trump late Sunday announced a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, set to take effect later in the day, with additional tariffs to be unveiled on Tuesday or Wednesday.
The announcement coincided with China’s imposition of retaliatory tariffs on selected US exports, which are set to take effect today.
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that the European Union is ready to respond “within an hour” if the United States imposes tariffs on European goods.
On the economic front, investors are preparing for the latest US consumer inflation data on Wednesday, followed by weekly unemployment claims and the producer price index report on Thursday.
Gold prices rose on Monday, hovering near record highs touched in the previous session, as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets after U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariff plans raised fears of a global trade war.
Oil prices rose on Monday even as investors weighed U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose tariffs, this time on all steel and aluminum imports, which could dampen global economic growth and energy demand.
Risk Disclaimer
Any information/articles/materials/content provided by WRPRO or displayed on its website is intended to be used solely for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a consultation on how the client should trade.
Although WRPRO has taken care to ensure that the content of such information is accurate, - it cannot be held responsible for any omission/error/miscalculation and cannot guarantee the accuracy of any material or any information contained herein.
Therefore, any reliance you place on such material is strictly at your own risk. Please note that the responsibility for using or relying on such material rests with the client and WRPRO accepts no liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Risk Warning: FX/CFDs are complex instruments and carry a high risk of losing money quickly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how FX/CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
You should make sure that, depending on your country of residence, you are allowed to trade with WRPRO products. Please ensure that you are familiar with the company’s risk disclosure.
