Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

Dollar steady ahead of key jobs report

The dollar index held steady above 109 on Friday as investors prepared for December’s nonfarm payrolls report, seeking insights into the strength of the labor market.

Gold on track for weekly gains amid Trump uncertainty; US jobs report awaited

-US Non-Farm Payrolls Report to be released on Friday at 16:30

-Silver will recover with gold in the second half of 2025-

Silver, Platinum, Palladium Set for Weekly Gains

The US non-farm payrolls report is due out today. According to a Reuters survey, jobs are expected to rise by 160,000 jobs in December, after an increase of 227,000 jobs in November.

“We expect gold to fall slightly if the nonfarm payrolls report comes in better than expected,” said Jigar Trivedi, senior analyst at Reliance Securities.

“Gold found support after the weaker-than-expected private employment report in December, which reinforced the idea that the Federal Reserve may need to adopt a less cautious approach to cutting interest rates,” Trivedi said.

Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid signaled Thursday that he is not willing to cut interest rates again as the Fed faces a resilient economy and inflation that remains above its 2% target.

-Trump’s proposed tariffs and immigration policies could also prolong the fight against inflation.

Traders now expect the first rate cut this year in either May or June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but rising interest rates reduce the attractiveness of holding bullion.

European benchmark crude futures for August delivery rose 0.6% to $30.3 an ounce, while the Comex (Slc1) contract traded at $31.17, both near their highest levels in a month.

“Our view is that the next US administration will shape economic and trade policy to promote national prosperity, and that silver will recover with gold in the second half (of 2025) to $35 per ounce,” Deutsche Bank said in a note.

Oil is heading for a third straight weekly gain on winter fuel demand,
with Brent trading at $77.00 and WTI at $73.00.

-Over the three weeks to January 10, Brent crude rose 6% while WTI crude jumped 7%.

Analysts at JPMorgan attributed the gains to growing concerns about supply disruptions due to tightening sanctions, amid falling oil inventories, freezing temperatures in many parts of the United States and Europe, and improving sentiment over Chinese stimulus measures.

The National Weather Service expects the central and eastern parts of the country to see below-average temperatures. Many parts of Europe have also been hit by a severe cold snap and are likely to continue to experience a colder-than-usual start to the year, which JPMorgan analysts expect will boost demand.

“We expect a significant year-on-year increase in global oil demand of 1.6 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, driven primarily by demand for heating fuel, kerosene and LPG,” JPMorgan said in a note on Friday.

Meanwhile, the premium of the front-month Brent contract over the front-six-month contract hit its highest level since August this week, indicating a supply shortage at a time of rising demand.

Oil prices rose despite a six-week rally in the value of the US dollar. A stronger dollar typically impacts prices by making it more expensive to buy crude oil outside the US.

-Supplies could be further affected as US President Joe Biden is expected to announce new sanctions targeting the Russian economy this week in an attempt to bolster Ukraine’s war effort against Moscow before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20. The main target of the sanctions so far has been the Russian oil industry.

“Uncertainty over how tough Trump will be on Iran will provide some support,” ING analysts said in a note on Friday. “Asian buyers were already looking for alternative grades from the Middle East, with broader sanctions on Russia and Iran making the flow of oil more difficult.”

Bitcoin price continued its losses and traded below the $93,500 level. Bitcoin is trying to correct its gains and may face difficulty in recovering above the $95,000 level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2674.97

Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2669.23, targeting 2662.78 and 2654.95

Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a break and hold above 2680.61. Target price 2687.04 and then 2694.17

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $73.91 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $74.19 levels, targeting $74.66 and then $75.22.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking $73.51 with a target price of $72.99 then $72.41

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.02918

Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.02788, targeting 1.02628 and then 1.02415.

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.03003, targeting 1.03200 and then 1.03424.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.22884

Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.22645 level, targeting the price of 1.22405 and then 1.22183

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.22946, targeting 1.23186 and then 1.23473.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 21283

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21353 with a target price of 21457 then 21575

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21197 with target price 21072 then 20965

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From United States of America United States Average Hourly Wages (Monthly) (December) 16:30

-From the United States of America United States Non-Farm Employment Report (December) 16:30

-From United States of America United States Unemployment Rate (December) 16:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady above the 109 level on Friday as investors prepared for the December nonfarm payrolls report, seeking insights on the strength of the labor market.

A strong jobs report could boost expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, released earlier this week, indicated a possible slowdown in the pace of monetary policy easing, due to renewed concerns about inflation.

Federal Reserve officials have also expressed concerns about the impact of potential changes in trade and immigration policy under the incoming Trump administration.

Moreover, strong activity in the services sector and rising prices have intensified inflationary concerns.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said Thursday that he expects the Fed to eventually cut interest rates, but stressed that immediate action is not necessary.

Gold prices are set to post their best weekly performance since mid-November as uncertainty surrounding US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies boosts demand for the metal, while investors await a key jobs report to gauge the path of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading and were on track for a third straight week of gains as icy conditions in parts of the United States and Europe boosted demand for heating fuel.