enDaily Analysis 09/12/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
Dollar steady ahead of key inflation data
The dollar index held steady around 106 on Monday as investors awaited crucial inflation data this week, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.
Gold rises to its highest levels
On Sunday, rebel forces in Syria ousted President Bashar al-Assad, marking the end of the Assad family’s 50-year rule and raising fears of a new wave of instability in the region.
-In addition, the US jobs report released on Friday indicated that the labor market continues to gradually improve, allowing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this month.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in an 83% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s final meeting of the year.
This reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, making them more attractive to buyers.
Elsewhere, China’s central bank resumed buying gold for its reserves in November after a six-month hiatus, providing additional support to the yellow metal.
Gold forecasts affected by US dollar optimism
-The improving US dollar outlook has cast doubt on the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s forecast for gold at $3,000 per ounce in Q4 2025.
-In a note, Dar says the Commonwealth Bank of Australia now expects the US dollar to rise 4% from current levels to peak in the third quarter of 2025. That has changed from a previous forecast that the dollar would fall 8% by late next year.
“Our bullish outlook over the next 12 months is underpinned by gold’s ability to find support in any environment next year, but especially when the US dollar weakens,” Dar said.
-But if the US dollar rises in the coming quarters, it is difficult to be confident that gold will continue to rise as well,
Asian stocks struggled to cope with a slide in South Korea on Monday ahead of a busy week of central bank meetings expected to see borrowing costs fall, while U.S. inflation data poses the final hurdle to further monetary easing there.
Oil prices rise as uncertainty in the Middle East grows after Assad’s fall, with Brent crude trading at $71.00 and WTI at $67.00.
-Brent, WTI rise more than 0.5% after two weeks of declines
-The overthrow of Assad in Syria fuels uncertainty in the region
Saudi crude prices to Asia fall to 4-year low
Demand forecasts still look weak through 2025
Syrian opposition fighters announced on state television on Sunday that they had toppled President Assad, ending a 50-year family dynasty in a lightning offensive that raised fears of a new wave of instability in a region already gripped by war.
“The developments in Syria have added a new layer of political uncertainty in the Middle East, which has provided some support to the market,” said Tomomichi Akota, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting.
“Saudi Arabia’s price cuts and OPEC+’s extension of production cuts last week confirmed weak demand from China, suggesting the market could weaken by the end of the year,” he added, noting that investors are watching for early signs of any impact on markets from US President-elect Donald Trump’s expected policies on energy and the Middle East.
Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest crude exporter, said on Sunday it had cut its January 2025 prices for Asian buyers to the lowest since early 2021, as weak demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, weighed on the market.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, on Thursday postponed the start of oil production increases by three months until April, and extended the full lifting of production cuts by a year until the end of 2026.
OPEC+, which accounts for about half of global oil production, had planned to start easing cuts from October 2024, but slowing global demand — especially from China, the world’s biggest importer of crude — and rising production elsewhere have forced it to postpone the plan several times.
The number of oil and gas rigs operating in the United States last week reached its highest level since mid-September, indicating rising production from the world’s largest crude oil producer.
Bitcoin price recovered from its losses and rose above $95,000. Bitcoin is now trying to consolidate its position and is facing obstacles near the $101,250 resistance area.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2642.28
Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2633.29, targeting 2626.84 and then 2619.00
Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2644.67 with a target price of 2651.10 and 2658.23
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $67.41 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil by breaking the $67.05 level, targeting $66.53 and then $65.94.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $67.73, targeting $68.20 and then $68.76
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.05414
Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.05266, targeting 1.05106 and then 1.04893
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.05493, targeting 1.05677 and then 1.05902.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.27260
Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.27112, targeting the price of 1.26871 and then 1.26649
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.27412, targeting 1.27652 and then 1.27939.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21652
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 21712, targeting 21815 then 21933
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 21557 with a target price of 21430 then 21323
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-There is no economic data for today.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 106 on Monday as investors awaited crucial inflation data this week, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.
US economic data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected job gains in November, even as the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
US consumer confidence also improved in December, boosting positive sentiment towards the dollar.
However, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed this month remain strong, with a current probability of 83%.
Investors are also focusing on central bank meetings in Canada and Australia later this week.
Meanwhile, ongoing political unrest in South Korea and France, coupled with the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, has increased demand for the dollar as a safe haven.
Gold rose above $2,640 an ounce on Monday, driven by its safe-haven appeal amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as growing expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut.
Oil prices rose on Monday after the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime raised further uncertainty in the Middle East, although gains were capped by expectations of weak demand for next year.
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