enDaily Analysis 07/03/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held above 104 on Friday as investors looked ahead to the highly anticipated monthly jobs report for more insight into the health of the economy.
Gold heads for weekly gain ahead of U.S. jobs data
*Gold outlook remains too bullish, analysts say
Bullion has gained 1.7% so far this week
US non-farm payrolls report due at 1330 GMT
- “Markets are waiting for fresh catalysts in terms of what is likely to happen in the future on the trade war,” said Kunal Shah, head of research at Nirmal Bang Commodities in Mumbai. “The outlook (for gold) remains very bullish.”
US President Donald Trump on Thursday suspended the 25% tariffs he imposed this week on most goods from Canada and Mexico, the latest development in a volatile trade policy that has rattled financial markets and raised concerns about inflation and slowing growth.
Shah said ongoing trade tensions, uncertainty over inflation and a weaker dollar that points to a slowing economy are all positive factors for gold.
The US Dollar Index
DXY
was hovering near a four-month low.
Trump’s policies, widely seen as likely to stoke economic uncertainty, have helped gold rise more than 10% so far this year.
U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he is leaning strongly against cutting interest rates at the bank’s next policy meeting this month, although he believes cuts later in the year are still on track if inflationary pressures continue to ease.
Gold is seen as a hedge against political risk and inflation, but rising interest rates are dampening the appeal of non-yielding assets.
The spotlight is on the non-farm payrolls report due at 1330 GMT, which is expected to show a gain of 160,000 jobs in February, according to a Reuters survey.
Oil set for biggest weekly drop since October on tariff uncertainty, supply gains, Brent at $70.00, WTI at $66.00
-Brent, WTI on track to fall about 5% this week
U.S. tariff suspension on Mexico, Canada offers temporary relief
but trade war risks, OPEC+ supply surge weigh
U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected last week,
their biggest weekly decline since the week of Oct. 14. WTI is set to fall 4.8%, also its biggest weekly decline since that week.
Markets, including oil, have been subject to sharp fluctuations due to volatile trade policy in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer.
“Financial markets appear to be in a full-blown panic, and Trump’s month-long delays and exemptions from import tariffs are no longer easily calmed,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis firm Vanda Insights.
“This leaves crude stuck around four-month lows, albeit vulnerable to further slides,” she added.
US President Donald Trump on Thursday suspended the 25% tariffs he imposed on most goods from Canada and Mexico until April 2, although tariffs on steel and aluminum are set to go into effect on March 12 as scheduled.
The amended order does not include all Canadian energy products, which are subject to a separate 10% tax.
Tariffs themselves are a drag on economic growth and therefore on oil demand growth. But policy uncertainty also slows trade decisions, which also weighs on the economy.
“Risks to oil prices remain tilted to the downside as new supplies from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers are expected to push the market into surplus,” Fitch’s BMI Research said in a note.
Brent prices fell on Wednesday to their lowest levels since December 2021 after US crude inventories rose and following a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, to increase their production quotas.
The group said on Monday it had decided to go ahead with a planned production increase in April, adding 138,000 barrels per day to the market.
Bitcoin price started a recovery wave from the $85,000 area. Bitcoin is back above $87,500 and may struggle to surpass the $92,000 resistance area.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
General trend: Up Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2920.94
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2922.94, targeting 2931.97 and 2940.14
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2910.35. Target price 2903.06 and then 2895.92
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $66.88 per barrel Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below $66.46 levels, targeting $66.10 and then $65.67
Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $67.01 level, targeting $67.37 and then $67.72.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08523 Scenario 1: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.08584, targeting 1.08763 and then 1.0897
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.08332, targeting 1.08158 and then 1.07956.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes) Current price: 1.29255
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.29329, targeting the price of 1.29505 and then 1.29704.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD with a break and stability with a close below 1.29038, targeting 1.28839 and then 1.28649
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20167 Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 20085 with a target price of 19980 then 19872
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20242 with a target price of 20353 then 20463
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From Europe GDP (YoY) (Q4) 13:00
-From USA Average Hourly Wages (MoM) (February) 16:30
-From the United States of America Non-Farm Employment Report (February) 16:30
-From the United States of America Unemployment Rate (February) 16:30
-From the United States of America, the Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Committee report 19:30,
-Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech 20:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held above the 104 level on Friday as investors looked ahead to the highly anticipated monthly jobs report for more insights into the health of the economy.
The dollar also found support after President Donald Trump temporarily exempted some Canadian and Mexican goods from 25% tariffs imposed earlier in the week, raising hopes for additional concessions.
However, the index remains on track to lose more than 3% for the week, as the escalation of the trade war has raised concerns about the potential negative impact on the US economy, especially in light of the heavy reliance of many US companies on free trade.
This led investors to shift towards other safe-haven currencies, including the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.
The dollar also fell sharply against the euro as investors anticipated a big increase in public spending in Germany and other European countries to support defense.
Gold steadied on Friday, on track for a weekly gain as uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans boosted demand, while investors awaited U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due later in the day.
Oil prices were little changed on Friday but were set for their biggest weekly drop since October as uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy raised concerns about demand growth at the same time as major producers prepared to boost output.
Risk Disclaimer
Any information/articles/materials/content provided by WRPRO or displayed on its website is intended to be used solely for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a consultation on how the client should trade.
Although WRPRO has taken care to ensure that the content of such information is accurate, - it cannot be held responsible for any omission/error/miscalculation and cannot guarantee the accuracy of any material or any information contained herein.
Therefore, any reliance you place on such material is strictly at your own risk. Please note that the responsibility for using or relying on such material rests with the client and WRPRO accepts no liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Risk Warning: FX/CFDs are complex instruments and carry a high risk of losing money quickly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how FX/CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
You should make sure that, depending on your country of residence, you are allowed to trade with WRPRO products. Please ensure that you are familiar with the company’s risk disclosure.
