Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index fell to around 107.5 on Thursday, extending its decline for a fourth straight session as concerns about a global trade war eased after cautious tariff measures from the United States and China.

Gold holds near all-time high as trade tensions boost safe-haven demand

Gold hits record high of $2,882.16 on Wednesday

US Non-Farm Payrolls Report Coming Friday

Fed officials point to plenty of uncertainty in Trump’s policy moves

“Investors are trying not to miss this rally as they are positioning themselves because they are happy with the returns. That is why prices are hitting consecutive highs,” said Soni Kumari, commodity strategist at ANZ Bank.

“Gold could hit $3,000 soon… However, what could help the market consolidate is some clarity on trade relations or an easing of trade tensions.”

China has filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization against US President Donald Trump’s new 10% tariffs on Chinese imports and his removal of duty-free treatment for low-value parcels, saying the measures are “protectionist” and violate WTO rules.

China also imposed tariffs on US goods in retaliation for the US tariffs, escalating the trade war between the two countries.

The market is also focused on US weekly jobless claims data, due at 1330 GMT, and Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to provide further insights into the overall strength of the economy.

Fed officials have pointed to significant political uncertainty over tariffs and other issues arising from the early days of the Trump administration as among the key challenges in determining the direction U.S. monetary policy should take in the coming months.

Gold is considered a safe investment during economic and geopolitical turmoil, but rising interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets.

Oil was little changed as Trump’s policies continued to pressure prices, with Brent crude trading at $74.00 and WTI at $70.00.

Oil prices fell more than 2% on Wednesday, as a big build in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories pointed to weak demand and as investors weighed the implications of a new round of U.S.-China trade tariffs, including on energy products.

Prices are down about 10% from their 2025 highs hit on Jan. 15, five days before Donald Trump took office as U.S. president. Analysts expect markets to be volatile in the coming weeks.

“We can expect significant price volatility over the coming weeks and months as markets grapple with the impact of Trump’s new policy stances, particularly on tariff measures,” analysts at BMI said in a note on Thursday.

A sharp increase in prices for Asian buyers by Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter, succeeded in halting the selling on Wednesday.

“After the heavy sell-off overnight and the Saudi news, there is likely to be some buying by traders covering short positions ahead of a strong support range in the $70/68 area,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.

Last month, the US imposed tough new sanctions on Russian oil trade, targeting “stealth ships” believed to be used to evade the trade blockade. Since taking office, Trump has imposed tariffs on China, though they have fallen short of the threats he made during his campaign.

Beijing responded by announcing tariffs on imports of U.S. oil, liquefied natural gas and coal on Tuesday, but China’s purchases from the United States are relatively modest, limiting the impact of the new measures.

-Bitcoin price started to decline again below the $100,500 area. Bitcoin is paring its gains and may continue moving towards the $95,000 area.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2855.27

First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2864.15, targeting 2870.58 and 2877.71

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2852.77. Target price 2846.32 and then 2838.49

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $71.03 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $71.42 level, targeting $71.89 and then $72.46.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $70.74 levels, targeting $70.22 and then $69.64.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.03718

Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.03688, targeting 1.03528 and then 1.03315.

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.03919, targeting 1.04100 and then 1.04324.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.24623

Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the 1.24560 level, targeting the price of 1.24319 and then 1.24098

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.24860, targeting 1.25101 and then 1.25387

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 21781

Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 21731, targeting a price of 21607 and then 21499

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 21888 with a target price of 219991 then 22109

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From Britain Bank of England interest rate decision (February) 15:00
-From USA Unemployment claims rate 16:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index fell to around 107.5 on Thursday, extending its decline for a fourth straight session as concerns about a global trade war eased after cautious tariff measures from the United States and China.

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are also expected to discuss trade developments in an upcoming call, further reducing the risk of higher inflation.

This shift in sentiment has led markets to maintain their expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

Traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in July, with another quarter point cut expected before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, data released on Wednesday revealed that the US economy added more than 180,000 private sector jobs in January, beating expectations of 150,000, indicating resilience despite ongoing economic uncertainty.

While the dollar fell against most currencies, it continued to decline against the yen, due in part to hawkish comments from Japanese officials.

Gold prices edged up on Thursday, hovering near record highs hit in the previous session, as tensions in the Sino-U.S. trade war boosted safe-haven demand, while investors awaited U.S. jobs data for clues on the future direction of interest rates.

Oil prices rose slightly in Asian trading on Thursday after Saudi Arabia’s state oil company sharply raised its March crude prices, but the increase was very small compared with the biggest drop in benchmark Brent prices in about three months a day earlier.