Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index fell below 108 on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session as the Trump administration’s approach to Chinese tariffs and retaliation proved less severe than expected.

Gold hits all-time high on China-US tariff war

Gold hits all-time high of $2,858.12

-Next major turning point could be $3,000 – analyst

Trump says he’s in no rush to talk to Chinese President Xi Jinping

“Gold continues to see safe-haven demand, given the current situation on the trade tensions front,” said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA.

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he was in no rush to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping to try to defuse trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

China has imposed targeted tariffs on U.S. imports and notified several companies, including Google, of potential penalties in a measured response to Trump’s tariffs.

“The next major turning point for gold could be the $3,000 level,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global economics at Tastlef. “China may feel more encouraged to continue buying gold as reserves if the trade war escalates.”

Meanwhile, three Federal Reserve officials warned that the Trump administration’s plans to impose trade tariffs pose inflationary risks, with one arguing that uncertainty about the price outlook requires slower rate cuts.

Although gold is considered a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates may reduce its appeal, because the metal does not pay any interest.

Investors are looking ahead to the ADP employment report at 1315 GMT and Friday’s payrolls report, which could shed more light on the health of the US economy.

“Demand for gold should have partially supported other precious metals, but their sensitivity to risk appetite has seen them underperform,” Spivak said.

Asian stock markets struggled to make headway on Wednesday as Wall Street futures took a hit on earnings disappointment and the dollar fell against the yen after Treasury yields fell.

Oil maintains its decline, with Brent crude trading at $76.00 and WTI crude at $72.00.

On Tuesday, Trump resumed his “maximum pressure” campaign, aiming to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero and counter its regional influence.

This came after China responded to US tariffs by imposing duties on US coal, liquefied natural gas and crude oil, raising concerns about weak global demand.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ has confirmed its plans to gradually increase oil production from April.

On the supply side, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that US crude inventories rose by 5.025 million barrels last week, exceeding expectations for an increase of 3.17 million barrels.

-Bitcoin price started to decline again from the $102,500 area. Bitcoin is paring its gains and struggling to stay above the $96,500 support area.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2680.51

First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2864.15, targeting 2870.58 and 2877.71

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2852.77. Target price 2846.32 and then 2838.49

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $72.39 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $72.57 level, targeting $73.04 and then $73.60.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $71.90 levels, targeting $71.37 and then $70.78.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.03879

Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.03747, targeting 1.03587 and then 1.03374.

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.03974, targeting 1.04159 and then 1.04383.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price:1.24809

Scenario 1: Selling the GBP/USD with a break and stability below the 1.23605 level, targeting the price of 1.24364 and then 1.24143

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.24905, targeting 1.25146 and then 1.25432

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 21523

Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 21456, targeting a price of 21331 then 21224

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 21613, targeting 21716 then 21834

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From USA ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (January) 16:15
-From USA Services PMI (January) 17:45
-From USA ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (January) 18:00
-From USA US Crude Oil Inventories 18:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index fell below 108 on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session as the Trump administration’s approach to Chinese tariffs and retaliation proved less severe than expected.

Late Monday, Trump agreed to delay the imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada after successful negotiations.

However, 10% tariffs on China went into effect on Tuesday, prompting Beijing to retaliate with its own tariffs on US imports, although the response has been relatively mild.

Trump and Xi Jinping are also expected to discuss the situation in an upcoming phone call, raising hopes that further escalation can be avoided and that the tariffs can eventually be reversed.

Meanwhile, the prospects for a Fed rate cut remain highly uncertain, as trade policies continue to evolve.

Gold prices hit a record high on Wednesday, supported by fears of a new trade war between the United States and China after Beijing imposed tariffs on U.S. imports in retaliation for new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures held onto their recent decline to around $73 a barrel on Wednesday as traders weighed concerns about the U.S.-China trade war against President Trump’s intensifying economic pressure on Iran.