Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

Dollar steady as investors weigh Fed policy outlook

The dollar index remained steady at around 106.4 on Wednesday as investors continued to assess the direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Gold holds above $2,640

A recent report showed that job opportunities in the United States were higher than expected, indicating continued flexibility in the labor market.

Investors are now looking ahead to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, along with additional speeches from several Federal Reserve officials to gauge the central bank’s potential policy moves this month.

The odds of a 25 basis point Fed funds rate cut are currently 73%, which benefits gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing assets.

Meanwhile, the precious metal remained supported by its safety appeal amid political uncertainty in South Korea and France, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war.

-Gold steady; outlook looks mixed

-Gold is steady in early Asian trading. The market has a mix of factors that make it difficult to determine the price direction of the precious metal. Investors are cautious amid concerns about the future direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Meanwhile, Joel adds that geopolitical tensions and global economic concerns could push prices higher soon. Spot gold was steady at $2,642.14 per ounce.

-Oil prices steady; OPEC+ meeting in spotlight as Brent trades at $73.00, WTI at $69.00

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures held onto their recent advance around $70 a barrel on Wednesday, after gaining 2.7% in the previous session, driven by signs that OPEC+ will further delay restoring production and new U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude.

Reports indicated that the producer group is close to reaching an agreement to postpone its plan to increase production for another three months, with a final decision expected at its meeting on Thursday, which would ease market fears of an oversupply.

Meanwhile, the United States has imposed sanctions on 35 entities and vessels it claims are important in transporting Iranian crude oil.

On the supply side, data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels last week, in contrast to market expectations for a decline of 2.1 million barrels.

This was also accompanied by a significant increase in gasoline and distillate inventories.

Oil futures were steady in early Asian trading as market participants awaited the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting later this week. “Traders could adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach ahead of the meeting, as OPEC+ is expected to extend current production cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2025.”

-Extending production cuts could provide some short-term support. However, Dahri adds that the broader market price action points to a bearish outlook for crude prices in the near to medium term, with the prospect of increased supply limiting any significant upside.

-Bitcoin price is holding near $95,000. Bitcoin must clear the $96,500 resistance area to attempt a fresh rally in the near term.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2649.47

Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2642.98, targeting 2636.53 and then 2628.70

Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2654.36, targeting 2660.79 and 2667.92

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $69.86 per barrel

Scenario 1: Sell oil by breaking the $69.42 level, targeting $68.89 and then $68.31.

Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $70.09, targeting $70.56 and then $71.13.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.05151

Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.05006, targeting 1.04846 and then 1.04633.

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.05234, targeting 1.05418 and then 1.05643.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26894

Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the 1.26681 level, targeting the price of 1.26437 and then 1.26215

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.26978, targeting 1.27219 and then 1.27505.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 21351

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 21409, targeting 21512 then 21630

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21255 with target price of 21128 then 21020

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From USA ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (November) 16:15

From USA Services PMI (November) 17:45

From the United States of America, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (November) 18:00

From the United States of America, the US crude oil inventory index 18:30

From the United States of America, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech 21:45

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady at around 106.4 on Wednesday as investors continued to assess the direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Data released Tuesday showed a modest increase in U.S. job openings in October, while layoffs fell, indicating workers’ confidence in the labor market.

Traders are now focusing on the ADP private payrolls report on Wednesday and the nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday for further insights into labor market trends.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak in New York on Wednesday afternoon.

Currently, markets are pricing in a 75% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December.

The dollar remained steady against most major currencies but strengthened against the Australian and New Zealand dollars after weak GDP data from Australia.

The pound also held steady at a two-year high against the South Korean won amid ongoing political unrest in South Korea.

Gold held above $2,640 an ounce on Wednesday as markets continued to assess the political and monetary outlook, while closely watching key economic data releases.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly statistical bulletin showed that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.232 million barrels in the week ending November 29, 2024, after a decline of 5.935 million barrels in the previous week.