Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index fell below the 104 level on Monday, reversing gains from the previous session as investors prepared for the upcoming US presidential election and the latest Federal Reserve policy announcement.

-Gold steadies ahead of US election, Fed decision
-Speculation that a second Trump presidency would fuel inflation through expansionary fiscal policies and higher tariffs has recently prompted investors to hold gold as a hedge against long-term inflation risks.

But expectations were moderate, with opinion polls indicating a close race between the presidential candidates.

Meanwhile, the Fed is widely expected to deliver a modest 25 basis point rate cut this week, following a large half-point cut in September, with markets also pricing in another quarter-point cut in December.

Meanwhile, renewed tensions in the Middle East continued to boost gold’s appeal as a safe haven.

Gold rises amid uncertainty over US elections

Gold prices rose in early trading in Asia amid uncertainty over this week’s US elections.

There could be a risk of a $100 correction in gold prices this week, depending on the outcome of the election, he said. If the election results prevent one party from controlling the White House and Congress, markets are likely to be concerned about excessive government spending, he added.

Maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold, thanks to concerns over financial instability, safe-haven demand and geopolitical tensions.

Oil rises after OPEC+ postpones production increase, with Brent crude trading at $75.00 and WTI at $70.00

This decision aims to stabilize prices amid ongoing economic concerns and prevent a potential oversupply in the market, given uncertainty about demand growth.

Renewed tensions in the Middle East contributed to the rise in oil prices.

Iran has stepped up its warnings against Israel, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowing a “crushing response.” Media reports have suggested that Iran has told its allies it may strike after the U.S. presidential election but before the inauguration in January, using more than just missiles and drones.

The ongoing cycle of retaliatory strikes between Israel and Iran has kept investors on edge due to the growing risk of oil facilities becoming unintended targets.

Oil prices rise amid expectations of escalating geopolitical tensions

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on the prospect of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Israeli military said Saturday that commandos had infiltrated deep into Lebanese territory in an overnight naval raid and captured a senior Hezbollah operative.

-Iran indicated late last week that it would respond to the recent Israeli strikes on its territory.

-Oil prices continue to rise amid concerns of an escalation between Iran and Israel that could disrupt oil supplies. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1.8% in the previous month to $70.77 a barrel; Brent crude rose 1.8% in the previous month to $74.42 a barrel.

-Bitcoin price corrects losses from $67,500 area. Bitcoin is recovering and may soon target a move above the $70,000 resistance area.

---

 

Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

---

 

GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2739.84

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2744.65, targeting 2751.08 and 2758.21

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2733.27 with a target price of 2726.82 and then 2718.98

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

---

 

CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $70.42 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $70.69 level, targeting $71.16 and then $71.72.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $70.01 levels, targeting $69.49 and then $68.90.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

---

 

EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08984

First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.09064, targeting 1.09249 and then 1.09473.

Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.08837, targeting 1.08677 and then 1.08464.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

---

GBPUSD

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.29899

Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the 1.29748 level, targeting the price of 1.29508 and then 1.29286

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.30048, targeting 1.30289 and then 1.30576.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

---

 

NAS100

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20217

Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 20109, targeting a price of 19980 then 19872

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20261 with a target price of 20364 then 20482

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

---

 

Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From Japan Culture Day holiday closed

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index fell below the 104 level on Monday, reversing gains from the previous session as investors prepared for the upcoming U.S. presidential election and the latest Federal Reserve policy announcement.

Recent market moves have sent the dollar and Treasury yields higher amid speculation that Trump could retake the White House this month, with his proposed policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs likely to stoke inflation.

However, uncertainty over the election outcome has prompted traders to scale back their bets this morning.

On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by a modest 25 basis points this week, after a large half-percentage point cut in September.

Markets are also pricing in another quarter-point cut for December.

The dollar fell against a basket of currencies, with the heaviest selling activity seen against the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar and the yen.

Gold held above $2,730 an ounce on Monday after falling for two straight sessions, as markets prepared for the upcoming U.S. presidential election and a policy decision by the Federal Reserve.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose toward $71 a barrel on Monday, extending gains for a fourth straight session after OPEC+ decided to delay December production plans for a second time.