enDaily Analysis 04/04/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The US dollar index remained below 102 on Friday after falling about 2% in the previous session, as concerns mounted that President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs and potential retaliation from major trading partners could tip the global economy into recession.
Gold falls as traders assess risk outlook amid clarity on Trump’s tariffs.
*Gold bullion is on track for its fifth consecutive weekly gain.
Gold hit a record high of $3,167.57 on Thursday.
The market is awaiting the US non-farm payrolls report, scheduled to be released later today.
*In the previous session, gold fell more than 2% amid widespread selling in the market due to Trump’s tariffs on imports, which impacted gold traders.
This sharp decline came just hours after gold reached a record high of $3,167.57.
“Gold tends to rise amid uncertainties that are difficult to price—such as the start of a war—but it tends to lose that support once markets learn how to price the risks involved,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global macroeconomics at Tastlef.
The Trump administration appears to have chosen a specific path, and while public sentiment may not be favorable, the path of least resistance has at least become clearer and easier to price. This reduces the “market confusion” premium on gold.
Trump said he would impose a 10% basic tariff on all imports into the United States and higher tariffs on some of the country’s largest trading partners.
US trading partners have threatened to escalate the trade war with Washington, as the tariffs have raised concerns about sharp price increases in the world’s largest consumer market.
Analysts said Federal Reserve officials, seeking more details about Trump’s trade plans, may have gotten more than they expected when he unveiled the sweeping tariffs, suggesting they could significantly reshape the country’s economic outlook.
The market now awaits the US non-farm payrolls report, which may provide insights into the path of the Federal Reserve’s interest rates.
Oil falls on OPEC+ increases and trade woes, with Brent trading at $68.00 and WTI at $65.00.
Eight major OPEC+ producers agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day next month, significantly exceeding expectations of 140,000 barrels per day and faster than planned.
The group said the increase is “equivalent to three monthly increases,” noting that it may halt or reverse the increases based on market conditions.
This comes against the backdrop of broader market turmoil caused by higher-than-expected US tariffs announced on Wednesday, prompting major economies to take countermeasures.
While energy imports have not been affected, fears of a global trade war could slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand.
Over the week, oil is expected to fall by about 4%.
Bitcoin price began a recovery wave from $81,200. Bitcoin is attempting to recoup its losses and is facing difficulties at the $83,500 resistance level.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3099.86
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3106.71, targeting 3115.74 and 3123.91.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3093.84, targeting 3086.83 and then 3079.69.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $65.27 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing above $65.69, targeting $66.05 and then $66.39.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking the $65.14 level, targeting $64.78 and then $64.35.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.10531
First scenario: Buy the EUR/USD after breaking 1.10705, targeting 1.10885 and then 1.11091.
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle close below 1.10454, targeting 1.10279 and then 1.10078.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.30543
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.30729, targeting 1.30769 and then 1.31104.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.30437, targeting 1.30238 and then 1.30049.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18624 Scenario 1: Sell the Nasdaq after breaking and closing below 18552, targeting 18448 and then 18339
Alternative scenario: Buy the Nasdaq after a breakout and hold steady with a close above 18,709, targeting 18,829 and then 18,936.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From the United States of America Average Hourly Wages (Monthly) (March) 15:30
-From the United States of America Non-Farm Employment Report (March) 15:30
-From the United States of America Unemployment Rate (March) 15:30
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s Speech 18:25
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index remained below 102 on Friday after falling about 2% in the previous session, as concerns mounted that President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs and potential retaliation from major trading partners could tip the global economy into recession.
Trump announced a 10% base tariff on all imports effective April 5, with higher tariffs imposed on approximately 60 countries, including China at 54%, the European Union at 20%, Japan at 24%, India at 27%, and Vietnam at 46%.
Markets responded by pricing in higher inflation, slower growth, and further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Traders now expect the Federal Reserve to make four 25 basis point interest rate cuts this year, the first of which is expected in June.
Meanwhile, Trump later indicated his openness to trade negotiations, contradicting previous statements by his aides.
Investors are now awaiting Friday’s US jobs report, which could help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next steps.
Gold prices fell on Friday as investors reassessed their risk appetite following US President Donald Trump’s tariff measures, which provided more clarity on market trends but raised concerns about an economic slowdown.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures fell to around $66 a barrel on Friday, after falling more than 6% from the previous session, under continued pressure from the OPEC+ increase and global trade concerns.
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