enDaily Analysis 04/02/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 108.7 on Tuesday after markets wobbled in the previous session, as President Donald Trump agreed to “immediately pause” planned tariffs on Mexico and Canada for a month, following negotiations with their leaders.
Gold prices hold near record levels as China tariff concerns persist
Trump suspends tariffs on Mexico and Canada, but not on China
Gold hits record high of $2,830.49 on Monday
– Gold price expected to reach $2874 in the near term – Analyst
– U.S. President Donald Trump suspended tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Monday, agreeing to a 30-day hold in exchange for concessions on border enforcement and crime with the two countries, while tariffs on Chinese goods are set to kick in soon. The market sees Trump’s tariff policies as inflationary.
“In the current very dynamic environment, where market volatility and political uncertainty are likely to dominate, gold prices may continue to find support,” said Yip Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.
“With a near-term price target at $2,874, followed by the psychological level of $3,000.”
Gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
Meanwhile, global bullion banks are moving gold to the United States from trading centers that serve Asian consumers, including Dubai and Hong Kong, to take advantage of the unusually high premium that U.S. gold futures enjoy over spot market prices.
Also on investors’ radar this week is a series of US jobs data, including US job openings data due later today, ADP’s employment report on Wednesday, and Friday’s payrolls report.
Oil falls after Trump delays tariffs, Brent crude trades at $75.00, WTI at $71.00
The decision came after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to strengthen border enforcement in response to Trump’s concerns about immigration and drug trafficking.
While the pause eases trade tensions in North America, uncertainty remains, with Trump’s 10% tariffs on Chinese imports set to go into effect today, but Trump has said he will speak to Beijing soon about the tariffs.
On the demand side, concerns remain as factory activity growth in China, the largest importer of crude, slowed in January.
Meanwhile, OPEC and its allies maintained their current oil production plans at a review meeting on Monday, despite calls from Trump to lower crude prices by expanding production.
-Bitcoin price started a fresh bullish move above the $98,000 area. Bitcoin is paring losses but may struggle to settle above the $103,000 area.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2813.91
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2818.80, targeting 2825.23 and 2832.36
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2807.55. Target price 2800.97 and then 2793.13
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $71.70 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $72.03 level, targeting $72.50 and then $73.07.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $71.36 levels, targeting $70.83 and then $70.25.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.03000
Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.02886, targeting 1.02751 and then 1.02513.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.03113, targeting 1.03298 and then 1.03522.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.24059
Scenario 1: Sell GBP/USD with a break and stability below 1.23858, targeting 1.23618 and then 1.23396
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.24159, targeting 1.24399 and then 1.24686
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21378
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 21290, targeting a price of 21165 then 21058
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 21447 with a target price of 21550 then 21668
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From USA Job Opportunities (JOLTS) (December) 18:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 108.7 on Tuesday after markets wobbled in the previous session, as President Donald Trump agreed to “immediately pause” planned tariffs on Mexico and Canada for a month, following negotiations with their leaders.
Markets are also more optimistic about the possibility of the United States and China reaching an agreement to prevent the imposition of 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, which are scheduled to take effect later today.
The Mexican peso, Canadian dollar and Chinese yuan saw modest gains after the announcement.
However, investors remain cautious, as the prospect of tariffs could reignite inflation, which could prevent the Fed from making further interest rate cuts.
Traders are also awaiting the non-farm payrolls report due on Friday, which is expected to provide further clarity on the state of the labor market.
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, remaining near a record high hit in the previous session, as U.S. tariffs on China and inflation concerns boosted safe-haven demand, while attention also turned to a key batch of jobs data due this week.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell to around $72.2 a barrel on Tuesday, erasing all of Monday’s gains after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a 30-day pause in his threats to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the country’s biggest foreign crude suppliers.
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