enDaily Analysis 03/02/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index rose more than 1% to around 109.8 on Monday, approaching a two-year high after President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on major trading partners over the weekend, raising concerns about a potential spike in inflation.
Gold falls as dollar rises after Trump tariffs
Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on goods from China, effective Tuesday.
Canada and Mexico have ordered retaliatory measures in response to Trump’s 25% tariffs, which are expected to rock the three countries’ economies, while China has said it will challenge the tariffs at the World Trade Organization and take unspecified countermeasures.
Trump’s tariff plans are widely viewed as inflationary, which could boost safe-haven demand for gold as it is traditionally seen as a hedge against price pressures and geopolitical uncertainty.
Asian stock markets fell on Monday, and U.S. stock futures pointed to a sharp decline after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China raised fears of a full-scale trade war and a hit to global growth.
About 12.9 million Trojan ounces of gold were delivered to Comex-approved warehouses, the highest level since July 2022 as investors flocked to safe-haven assets.
Meanwhile, Comex gold speculators cut their net long positions by about 3,766 contracts to 230,592 contracts in the week ended Jan. 28.
Gold also fell on profit-taking after prices broke above $2,800 for the first time last week, hitting an all-time high of $2,817.23.
Oil prices rise after Trump imposes tariffs, with Brent crude trading at $76.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $73.00.
The United States has announced a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on goods from China, which are set to go into effect on Tuesday.
Canadian energy also faces a 10% tariff.
In response, Canada and Mexico said they were preparing to impose similar tariffs on U.S. goods, while China said it would file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization.
However, crude oil prices may face downward pressure in the near term, as the implementation of tariffs and subsequent retaliation could ignite a wider trade war, negatively impacting global economic growth and weakening energy demand.
-Bitcoin price has started to decline again below the $100k area. Bitcoin price is down by about 10% and may test the support area at $90k.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2786.50
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2790.43, targeting 2796.86 and 2803.99
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2779.05. Target price 2772.60 and then 2764.76
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $73.35 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $73.62 level, targeting $74.09 and then $74.65.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $72.94 levels, targeting $72.42 and then $71.83.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.02474
Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.02342, targeting 1.02182 and then 1.01969.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.02569, targeting 1.02754 and then 1.02978.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.22888
Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.22683, targeting the price of 1.22443 and then 1.22221
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.22984, targeting 1.23224 and then 1.23511.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21061
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 20985, targeting a price of 20861 then 20753
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 21142 with a target price of 21245 then 21363
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
China – Chinese New Year
-From Europe Consumer Price Index (YoY) (January) 13:00
-From USA Manufacturing PMI (January) 17:45
-From USA ISM Manufacturing PMI (January) 18:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index rose more than 1% to around 109.8 on Monday, nearing a two-year high after President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on major trading partners over the weekend, raising concerns about a potential spike in inflation.
The United States imposed a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on imports from China.
In response, Canada announced tariffs, Mexico indicated it would consider levying duties on U.S. imports, and China announced it would file a lawsuit at the World Trade Organization. In response to the tariff news, traders cut their bets on a Fed rate cut, now expecting about 41 basis points of easing this year.
Markets will also be closely watching the January nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, which could further influence the outlook for monetary policy.
The US dollar rose across the board, with the Canadian dollar, Mexican peso and other risk-sensitive currencies posting the biggest declines.
Gold prices fell in early Asian trading on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar as fears of a global trade war mounted after US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China over the weekend.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose to around $73.7 a barrel on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions.
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