Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index held steady above 102 on Wednesday after jumping 0.8% in the previous session, supported by a cautious shift in risk sentiment highlighted by a recovery in Treasury yields and a sell-off on Wall Street.
• Gold rose as the dollar retreated ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes.
• The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes are scheduled to be released today at 22:00 Mecca time.
• Traders see a 70% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in March.
• The U.S. non-farm payrolls report is scheduled to be released on Friday.
• Natural gas markets opened yesterday with a 6% increase due to concerns about geopolitical tensions.
• Oil prices fell and stabilized amid economic concerns despite concerns about the Red Sea, trading at $75 a barrel for Brent crude and $70 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate.
• More than 70% of major Japanese companies expect continued economic growth in 2024.
• Asian stocks continued the global sell-off as hopes for interest rates receded.
• The price of Bitcoin maintains its gains above the resistance level of $45,000. It appears that BTC is preparing to make further gains above the $46,000 level in the near term.

 

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,064.50

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,068.37, targeting a price of $2,073.42 and then $2,080.37.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,060.13, targeting a price of $2,053.69 and then $2,046.33.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $70.51 per barrel

First scenario: Sell oil on the level of $70.14, targeting a price of $69.61 and then $69.03.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil at a break of $70.81, targeting a price of $71.28 and then $71.85.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.09575

First scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.09668, targeting a price of $1.09852 and then $1.10077.
Alternative scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.09441, targeting a price of $1.09281 and then $1.09068.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.26414

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.26164, targeting a price of $1.25967 and then $1.25743.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $1.26500, targeting a price of $1.26786 and then $1.27007.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $16,709

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $16,677, targeting a price of $16,635 and then $16,592.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $16,736, targeting a price of $16,776 and then $16,822.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Japan: Stock market closed
• United States: ISM Manufacturing PMI (December) at 18:00
• United States: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) (November) at 18:00
• United States: FOMC meeting minutes at 22:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index held steady above 102 on Wednesday after jumping 0.8% in the previous session, supported by a cautious shift in risk sentiment highlighted by a recovery in Treasury yields and a sell-off on Wall Street.
• Analysts also pointed to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Iran deployed a warship to the Red Sea earlier this week, in a bold move to challenge U.S. forces in the key shipping lane.
• In addition, investors reduced their bets on the size of interest rate cuts from major central banks this year.
• The markets are now looking to key U.S. jobs data this week, as well as the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting, to better guide interest rate expectations.
• The dollar strengthened across the board, with the most notable buying activity against the New Zealand dollar and the euro.
• Gold prices rose on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar, as investors await the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting and U.S. jobs data for more clarity on interest rate expectations.
• Traders doubled their bets on interest rate cuts in 2024, encouraged by slowing inflation and the Fed’s cautious stance at its December policy meeting.
• These expectations helped gold to surge 13% in 2023, its first annual gain since 2020, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
• Oil prices stabilized in early Asian trading on Wednesday after sharp moves earlier in the week, as markets weighed concerns about the U.S. economy and the potential for supply disruptions due to ongoing tensions in the Red Sea.