Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index held steady on Wednesday, trading sideways this week as investors awaited President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcement, which he described as “liberalization statements.” The White House confirmed that reciprocal tariffs on countries that impose tariffs on US goods will take effect immediately.

Gold rises on safe-haven demand ahead of US-China tariffs

Gold hit a record high of $3,148.88 an ounce on Tuesday.

Investors await the announcement of “Liberation Day”

ADP employment report will be released later today.

US job openings data is due later today.

“The main reason behind these consecutive record highs is safe-haven buying, and the geopolitical uncertainty that underpins this shows no signs of abating,” said Philip Newman, managing director of Metals Focus.

Newman said that a slowing US economy, a potential rise in inflation, and lower interest rates could pave the way for gold to reach $3,300 in the coming months.

Markets were gripped by anticipation ahead of US tariffs scheduled to be imposed later today, which President Donald Trump has dubbed “liberation day.”

Trump’s tariff policies could exacerbate inflation, slow economic growth, and escalate trade disputes.

Gold is considered a hedge against global instability and inflation, and thrives in a low interest rate environment.

The White House confirmed the imposition of new tariffs, although it did not provide any details regarding their size or scope.

Gold prices were also supported by strong demand from central banks, expectations of interest rate easing by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Europe, and increased inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds.

“The market could test $3,400 an ounce in the next nine months in a bullish scenario,” said Akash Doshi, head of global gold strategy at State Street Global Advisors.

Federal Reserve officials are concerned about the possibility of falling employment rates, but the threat of tariff-induced inflation limits their ability to do anything about it.

Markets are awaiting the ADP employment report later today, and the nonfarm payrolls report scheduled for release on Friday.

Oil steady as new US tariffs loom, with Brent trading at $74.00 and WTI at $70.00.

The White House did not disclose details about the size or scope of the tariffs, but said they would take effect immediately upon their unveiling on Wednesday.

President Trump also noted that the tariffs would affect many countries, raising concerns about potential economic repercussions that could lead to a decline in energy demand.

Meanwhile, oil continued to receive support from Trump’s recent threat to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil and increase sanctions on Iran as part of his maximum pressure campaign to curb exports.

Elsewhere, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that crude oil prices rose by 6 million barrels, while gasoline prices fell by 1.6 million barrels.

Investors are also awaiting the OPEC+ meeting later this week.

Bitcoin price began a recovery wave above $83,500. Bitcoin is now stabilizing and may struggle to hold above $85,500.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 3116.97

First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 3122.52, targeting 3131.80 and 3139.97.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3109.90, targeting 3102.89 and then 3095.75.

Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $70.77 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing above $71.21, targeting $71.56 and then $71.91.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking the $70.65 level, targeting $70.29 and then $69.86.

Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price:

1.07925 Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD after breaking 1.08070, targeting 1.08250 and then 1.08456

Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle close below 1.07819, targeting 1.07644 and then 1.07442.

Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.29129

Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and stability above 1.29350, targeting 1.29526 and then 1.29725.

Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.29058, targeting 1.28859 and then 1.28669.

Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 19576

Scenario 1: Sell the Nasdaq after breaking and closing below 19,509, targeting 19,418 and then 19,296.

Alternative scenario: Buy the Nasdaq on a breakout and hold steady with a close above 19,666, targeting 19,785 and then 19,893.

Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From the United States of America: ADP Non-Farm Private Sector Employment Change (March) 15:15
-From the United States of America: US Crude Oil Inventory 17:30
-From the United States of America: US President Trump’s Speech 22:00

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady on Wednesday, trading sideways this week as investors awaited President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcement, which he described as “liberalization statements.” The White House confirmed that reciprocal tariffs on countries that impose tariffs on US goods will take effect immediately.

However, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant stated that the tariffs would act as a “ceiling,” allowing countries to take steps to reduce them.

Meanwhile, data on Tuesday showed that US factory activity contracted in March for the first time this year, with prices rising for the second straight month, reflecting the impact of tariffs.

Job openings fell in February, but layoffs remained low, indicating a gradual slowdown in the labor market.

Investors now turn to Wednesday’s ADP employment report and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data for further insights into Federal Reserve policy.

Gold prices extended gains on Wednesday, after hitting a record high in the previous session, as investors sought safe haven in the yellow metal in anticipation of the potential impact of tariffs between the United States and China.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures hovered around $71 a barrel on Wednesday as markets braced for reciprocal U.S. tariffs that could escalate the global trade war.