Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar fell as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy expectations.
• Gold is on track for a third weekly gain as weak data boosted bets on a Fed rate cut.
• The annual increase in US inflation was the lowest since March 2021.
• Powell will set the direction for gold today.
• Oil prices are on track for a sixth consecutive weekly decline as disappointing OPEC+ cuts weigh. Brent crude is trading at $83.24 and West Texas Intermediate is trading at $78.33.
• Bitcoin is trading above the $38,000 support level.

---

 

Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

---

 

GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,041.15

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,044.87, targeting a price of $2,049.93 and then $2,056.87.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,036.64, targeting a price of $2,030.19 and then $2,022.84.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

---

 

CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $75.82 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $76.16, targeting a price of $76.61 and then $77.26.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $75.73, targeting a price of $75.32 and then $74.84.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

---

 

EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.09078

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.08938, targeting a price of $1.08778 and then $1.08565.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.09165, targeting a price of $1.09349 and then $1.09574.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

---

 

GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.26395

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.26256, targeting a price of $1.26058 and then $1.25835.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.26592, targeting a price of $1.26878 and then $1.27099.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

---

 

NAS100

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $15,959

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $15,926, targeting a price of $15,872 and then $15,808.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $16,005, targeting a price of $16,068 and then $16,131.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

---

 

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Canada: Unemployment rate and employment change at 16:30
• Canada: Ivey Purchasing Managers Index at 17:30
• US: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index at 18:00
• US: Speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at 19:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index fell to around 103.4 on Friday, giving up some of the gains it made in the previous session as investors continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy expectations in light of the latest economic reports.
• The U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3% in October from a year earlier, slowing from gains of 3.4% in the previous three months.
• Personal spending also fell while continuing jobless claims reached their highest level in two years.
• U.S. policymakers have largely signaled that the tightening cycle is likely to end, but they have left the door open for further interest rate hikes if progress is made with stopping inflation.
• The dollar index also lost 3% in November, its worst monthly performance in a year amid bets that the central bank may start to cut interest rates next year.
• Investors are now looking to remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday for further guidance.
• Gold prices are set to record a third consecutive weekly gain on Friday, after data showed that a slowdown in inflation has boosted bets on interest rate cuts in the United States, as traders look ahead to comments from Fed Chairman Powell later in the day.
• Oil prices continued to lose ground on Friday, and looked set for a sixth consecutive week of declines, as voluntary oil production cuts agreed by OPEC+ fell short of market expectations.