Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

Dollar remains steady as Fed forecasts eyed

The dollar index held steady around 109 on Thursday as investors continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

Gold dips; focus on US data to determine Fed policy path

-US Non-Farm Payrolls Report to be Released on Friday

Gold ETFs Record First Inflows in Four Years – World Gold Council

-Gold’s bullish momentum could carry it to higher levels in early 2025

“Prices are trading in a tight range and there is some profit-taking. A fresh catalyst is needed for gold to break through its resistance,” said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities in Mumbai.

Gold hit a near four-week high in the previous session after a weaker-than-expected U.S. private sector employment report suggested the Federal Reserve may be less cautious about easing interest rates this year.

The market is now awaiting Friday’s US jobs report for further clues on the Fed’s policy path.

Investors are also waiting for Donald Trump to take office on January 20, and his proposed tariffs and protectionist policies are expected to stoke inflation.

Policymakers at the Fed’s last meeting noted that “recent higher-than-expected inflation readings, and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, suggest that the process may take longer than previously anticipated,” according to minutes of the meeting released Wednesday.

Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets.

“We believe the bulk of the rally has already been implemented, and while gold’s bullish momentum could carry it higher in the near term and into early 2025, a combination of physical and financial market factors could tame the rally and push gold modestly lower by the end of next year,” HSBC said in a note.

Elsewhere, physically backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their first inflow in four years, according to the World Gold Council.

Oil pares early losses, with Brent trading at $76.00 and WTI at $72.00

The latest report from the US Energy Information Administration showed that US crude inventories fell by about 1 million barrels last week, the seventh consecutive decline, but it also showed large increases of 6.3 million barrels in gasoline and 6.1 million barrels in distillates.

Meanwhile, OPEC output fell in December after two months of growth, as field maintenance in the UAE offset gains, including higher Nigerian output.

Russian oil production also fell below OPEC+ targets, with exports hitting their lowest level since August 2023.

In the United States, the expected cold weather is expected to boost demand for heating fuel.

-In contrast, data from China showed consumer inflation near zero, highlighting weak domestic demand and raising concerns about deflation in the core consumer.

Bitcoin price continued its losses and traded below the $95,000 level. Bitcoin is trying to correct its gains and may face difficulty in recovering above the $96,500 level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2665.65

Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2657.37, targeting 2650.92 and 2643.09

Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2668.75, targeting 2675.18 and then 2682.31

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $72.70 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $73.00 levels, targeting $73.40 and then $74.03.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $72.32 level, targeting $71.80 and then $71.21.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.02960

Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.02896, targeting 1.02736 and then 1.02523.

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.03123, targeting 1.03308 and then 1.03532.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.22672

Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the 1.22586 level, targeting the price of 1.22346 and then 1.22124

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.22887, targeting 1.23127 and then 1.23414.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 21254

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21353 with a target price of 21457 then 21575

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21197 with target price 21072 then 20965

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From the United States of America United States – National Day

-From China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (December) 4:30

-From China CPI (MoM) (Dec) 4:30

-From Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) (December) 12:00

-From Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) (December)

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady around 109 on Thursday as investors continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

Minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s December meeting revealed that officials were concerned about persistent inflation and the potential impact of changes in trade and immigration policy under the incoming Trump administration.

The central bank has indicated that it may be approaching a point at which it may be appropriate to slow the pace of monetary policy easing.

The dollar also received support from reports that Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to justify imposing broad tariffs on both allies and adversaries.

On the economic data front, the ADP report showed that private sector employment fell to a four-month low in December, pointing to a possible slowdown in the labor market.

Investors are now focusing on the December payrolls report, due out on Friday, for more details on the state of the economy.

Gold fell to around $2,650 an ounce on Thursday, snapping two days of gains as investors continued to assess the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy outlook ahead of key jobs data.

U.S. crude oil futures rose above $73 a barrel on Thursday, reversing earlier losses as investors weighed a sharp rise in U.S. fuel inventories against concerns about tightening supplies.