Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index fell below 104 on Thursday, hitting a two-week low after the Federal Reserve signaled its readiness to cut interest rates in September amid improving inflation data.

Gold rises to two-week high after Fed signals possible September rate cut

-US payrolls data to be released on Friday, analyst says: Geopolitical factors increasingly support gold

“Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to hit $2,500 this year as the Fed cuts interest rates,” said Peter Fung, head of trading at Wing Fung Precious Metals.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that interest rates could be cut in September if the U.S. economy continues on its expected path, putting the central bank near the end of a more than two-year battle against inflation. (FEDWATCH)

Zero-yielding gold tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment.

“Gold enthusiasts may want to be a bit cautious above $2,500 an ounce, given gold’s reluctance to hold onto gains around these levels,” said Matt Simpson, senior analyst at City Index.

-The market focus shifts to the US payrolls report on Friday.

“If the data comes out hotter than expected, it could weigh on gold as we head into the weekend,” Simpson added.

Elsewhere, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital Tehran early Wednesday, an attack that prompted threats of retaliation from Israel and raised further fears that the conflict in Gaza is turning into a wider war in the Middle East.

Geopolitical conditions are increasingly supportive of gold in the medium to long term, Nikki Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS Pump SA, said in a note.

Asian stocks rose on Thursday, tracking a sharp rally in technology stocks helped by Meta and Nvidia, while prospects of imminent U.S. policy easing boosted global bonds and commodities.

Oil rises amid fears of widening conflict in the Middle East, with Brent crude trading at $81.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $78.00,
with the most active contracts on both benchmarks jumping about 4% in the previous session.

– Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital Tehran on Wednesday. His death came less than 24 hours after the top military commander of Lebanon’s Hezbollah was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Beirut.

The killings have raised fears that the 10-month-old war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas could escalate into a wider war in the Middle East, potentially disrupting oil supplies from the region.

“Oil markets are justifiably concerned that Haniyeh’s assassination could push Iran directly into war with Israel,” said analyst Vivek Dhar of Commonwealth Bank of Australia in a note to clients. “This would put Iranian oil supplies and associated infrastructure at risk.”

Dar added that markets will be concerned about Iran’s ability to escalate tensions by controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

Bitcoin has fallen below $65,000, following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, along with reports of escalating conflicts in the Middle East.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2447.33

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2453.06, targeting 2459.49 and 2466.62

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2441.68 with a target price of 2435.23 and then 2429.00

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $78.06 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $78.28 levels, targeting $78.75 and then $79.32.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $77.60 level, targeting $77.08 and then $76.50.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08225

First scenario: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.08104, targeting 1.07944 and then 1.07731.

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.08332, targeting 1.08516 and then 1.08741.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

 

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.28296

Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.28274, targeting the price of 1.28076 and then 1.27852

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.28610, targeting 1.28869 and then 1.29117.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 19618

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 19701, targeting 19770 then 19850

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 19559 price 19542 then 19491

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From UK Bank of England interest rate decision (August) 14:00
-From UK Bank of England inflation message 15:00
-From USA Unemployment claims rate 15:30
-From USA Manufacturing PMI (July) 16:45
-From USA ISM Manufacturing PMI (July) 17:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index fell below 104 on Thursday, hitting a two-week low after the Federal Reserve signaled its readiness to cut interest rates in September amid improving inflation data.

The central bank kept the federal funds rate steady as expected and noted that although it remains high, inflation has declined and is moving further toward target.

Markets are expecting a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with around 70 basis points of cuts expected this year.

On the data front, economic indicators on Wednesday, including the ADP report and second-quarter employment costs, pointed to a slowing labor market, while investors look ahead to the highly anticipated monthly jobs report on Friday.

The dollar fell against major currencies, but recorded the biggest decline against the yen following the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike.

Gold prices hit a two-week high on Thursday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell opened the door to an interest rate cut as early as September.

Oil prices rose in Asian trading on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session, after the killing of the Hamas leader in Iran raised the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East and concerns about its impact on oil.